YouGov shows Boris set to win

YouGov's eve-of-poll figures for the London election - the only pollster to produce a true eve-of-poll effort with fieldwork within a few days of actual voting - has topline figures of JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 36%, PADDICK 13%. Minor party support is split Green 2%, BNP 2%, UKIP 1%, Alan Craig of the CPA 1% and Lindsey German of the Left List 1%.

After second preference votes have been re-allocated Boris Johnson is projected to win by 53% to 47% for Ken Livingstone. This suggests that the second preference votes have broken in favour of Ken Livingstone.

Several people including Nick Sparrow and Mike Smithson have rightly pointed out that polling figures for how second preferences split aren't particularly useful to us because of the small sample - if you've only got 170 people saying their are voting for Brian Paddick, the margin of error on how they divide between Ken and Boris is huge. Still - if Boris Johnson does have a 7 point lead on first preferences, the second preferences would have to break in favour of Livingstone to an absurdly unrealistic degree for him to overcome it, given the number that are unused or given to minor candidates.

Voting intention in the assembly stands at CON 40%, LAB 33%, LDEM 14%. Others include the Greens on 4%, BNP on 3%, UKIP 2%, Christian Choice 1%, Left List 1%, Respect 1%, Abolish the Congestion Charge 1%. In an earlier YouGov poll the assembly question was asked about only the constituency vote, not the more interesting list vote. I've sadly no idea which these were asked about.

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