YouGov show the Conservatives back ahead
When I reported the YouGov poll following Gordon Brown's speech I cautioned that it a snap poll taken right after the speech and it would probably fall back - a couple of days later the 11 point lead it showed was confirmed in a normal poll. On Thursday I again cautioned that the Tory increase was in a snap poll and the immediate Conservative boost would probably decline...and again it hasn't. In fact it has grown.
A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has voting intentions, with changes from YouGov's snap midweek poll for Channel 4, of CON 41%(+5), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(-2). The changes from the last full size YouGov poll a week ago are a stunning plus 9 points for the Conservatives, minus 5 for Labour and minus 4 for the Liberal Democrats.
This is the first time YouGov (or indeed any pollster) have shown a Conservative lead since June, the highest Conservative share they've ever shown (and highest of anyone since 1992). The last time I can find that the Liberal Democrats sank this low was in 2001. There is no longer the possibility of an imminent election of course, but were these figures repeated at a general election it would produce a severely hung Parliament - CON 296, LAB 316, LDEM 12 - even Labour and the Liberal Democrats together would have a majority of only 6.
It's always a good rule of thumb to be extra sceptical about polls that show big shifts of opinon (there is a statistical 'law' called Twyman's Law that runs along the same lines - "Any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong."). Until we see some more polls backing up these findings it may just turn out to be a blip. There is support though in a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday that has figures of CON 39%(+5), LAB 38%(-3), LDEM 12%(nc).
The further increase in Conservative support is plausible - most of the fieldwork for the YouGov poll in the week would have been completed before the newspapers had reported Cameron's speech (ICM's whose fieldwork would have included a greater proportion of interviews from Thursday had the parties neck and neck) and the media narrative since the party conference has been working in the Conservatives favour.
Then there is the question of the Liberal Democrats - it is clear that they have been savagely squeezed out by a Labour party revived by Gordon Brown and a Conservative party that has pulled itself together in the face of a possible election. I find it hard to believe that they won't recover from this level, but with figures this low there must come a point where they need to address their situation.
Normally with a big shift in the polls like this I would say wait to the next polls to see if the changes are confirmed - in this case I'd be surprised if they weren't even if this poll is a blip. The media reaction to Gordon Brown's decision not to call an election shows every sign of being savage and I would be surprised if they didn't suffer further in the polls. With no election in the offing though, the most interesting thing to watch in the coming weeks will not be voting intention but how attitudes to Gordon Brown change. At the moment he has a repution of being strong, tough and competent - will the decision not to have an election change that? We will see.
