YouGov show a swing to Labour in the marginals

YouGov have repeated their poll of 60 Lab/Con marginal seats for Channel 4 (I wrote about the previous survey here). Labour's share of the vote in these seats has increased by 6 points since the previous poll in early September, while the Conservatives are down 2 points. Whereas the previous YouGov marginal poll translated into a Conservative majority of about 150, this one would equate to a Tory majority of 54.

This is a broadly similar pattern to that which we've seen in national polls since the conference season: Labour up around 6 points from the mid-twenties to 30 or so; the Conservatives down a couple of points into the low-40s. The marginal seats seem to have reacted to the banking crisis in pretty much the same way as the country as a whole.

There are some other interesting findings in the poll:

YouGov asked who people thought would make the better Prime Minister "right now IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS" (YouGov's emphasis!) and found a solid lead for Gordon Brown: 41% to David Cameron's 27%. However, they then asked who they felt would make the better Prime Minister after the next election and the position reversed, Cameron led Brown by 36% to 26%. While this is a pattern I expected in reality, I'm rather surprised to find it as coming out so explicitly in questioning: people want Brown now, but Cameron once the immediate crisis has passed.

Despite getting credit for his handling of the crisis, it really doesn't appear to be helping Brown that much in electoral terms. For example, 58% of people said Brown had "shown read leadership in tackling the banking crisis..." but the majority of those people still went on to say " ...but does not deserve to be re-elected Prime Minister at the next election". Overall 27% thought he had shown real leadership and deserved to be re-elected, 31% thought he had shown real leadership, but didn't deserve re-election. 27% thought he failed to show any real leadership anyway.

Looking at the practical way forward, 49% of people said the government had to spend the money it did to rescue the banks, with 33% saying it was too generous to the banks (though there is little scope here for the opposition to appeal to that 33%, 53% of people also agreed that the Tories were only pretending to be tough on bankers.) Increasing borrowing "to help families through difficult economic times" however was unpopular. Only 24% agreed, with 49% disagreed - suggesting increased government borrowing will be a hard sell to the public.

YouGov also asked about "Boom and Bust" (topically given today's PMQs). 39% of people in marginal seats thought the current crisis showed Brown "was wrong to talk about an end to boom and bust", but 47% said that the present circumstances were extraordinary and Brown couldn't be blamed. That doesn't mean he is off the hook entirely though - despite people mostly blaming American banks for the current problems (61% think they are most to blame), 58% think Gordon Brown bears a lot of responsibility.

Finally, these are Labour vs Conservative marginal seats, so how the Liberal Democrats are seen is pretty irrelevant, but all the same there is a question here to warm the cockles of their hearts. Asked to put aside party preferences and say who would be the best Chancellor for Britain right now, Vince Cable narrowly came out on top with 19%, ahead of Alistair Darling on 15% and George Osborne on 12% (54% said don't know - a reminder that beyond the party leaders, even the most senior political figures aren't actually that well known).

As a caveat of course, it's important to remember these views are only representative of people in 60 Labour marginal seats. It's unlikely people outside these seats have vastly different views, and in terms of electoral politics it may well be these people that matter anyway, but strictly speaking we cannot assume the country thinks the same way as this lot.