YouGov polling on the veto
Last night's YouGov poll for the Sun showed the Conservatives at 39%, Labour at 40% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%. Two polls in a row with the lowest Labour lead from YouGov since early September suggest there has indeed been an impact on voting intention from the veto, though how long this lasts for is a different question. At minus 19, government approval is also at its most positive since May.
The rest of the poll with YouGov's questions on the European summit are now up here. 58% of people think Cameron was right to use the veto, compared to 21% who think he was wrong. Tory voters overwhelmingly back him (87% to 3%), Lib Dem voters by 47% to 36%, Labour voters are evenly split (38% to 39%).
53% think the veto was a sign of strength, 17% think it was a sign of weakness - this is probably the most important area. Europe itself is an issue of relatively low salience, although taking a tougher stand will no doubt firm up traditional Tory votes and act against Tory votes drifting to UKIP (who are down to 4% in this latest poll), what would have a wider impact is any longer term difference it makes to perceptions of Cameron's leadership. Does it result in him being perceived as stronger, more likely to stick to what he believes in, more trusted (or indeed, less competent or efficent or whatever)?
While the public back the veto, people are more pessimistic on whether the outcome of the summit is good or bad for Britain. 31% think it is bad for Britain, 24% good for Britain, 45% neither or don't know. The apparent contradiction between supporting the veto but thinking it is bad for Britain is because while 38% think that the veto was a good outcome, 20% think it is bad but that Cameron had no choice given other countries wouldn't compromise. 24% think Cameron should have signed the deal or been able to negotiate a better one.
51% of people think that using the veto has decreased British influence in Europe. 63% of people think that the outcome of the summit leaves Britain isolated from other EU countries... however, most of those saying this (35% to 28%) think that this is a *good* thing.
51% of people say they trust David Cameron to look after Britain's interests in Europe, compared to 40% who do not. In comparison, 32% would trust Ed Miliband, 52% would not. 22% trust Nick Clegg, 67% would not. The perception is that Tory backbenchers have far more influence over the government's European policy than Clegg does - 61% think that Eurosceptic backbench Tory MPs have influence over the government's European policy, only 31% think that Nick Clegg has influence over it.
Looking forwards, 44% of people think the veto makes it more likely that Britain will leave the European Union (5% less likely, 33% no difference), however this is still not seen as likely. 61% think Britain will probably still be a member of the EU in 10 years time, 23% think Britain probably won't. Asked how they would vote in a referendum on EU membership, 43% would vote to leave, 36% would vote to remain a member.
