YouGov - Livingstone apparently undamaged by Dispatches
A new YouGov poll for ITV London has topline voting intentions for the London mayoral election of Livingstone 44%(-1), Johnson 40%(-4), Paddick 8%(+1). I can't find the exact dates of the poll yet, but press reports suggest it was conducted after the Channel 4 Dispatches programme criticising Ken Livingstone, and the preceeding couple of weeks of agressive attacks on Livingstone by the Evening Standard.
If the poll was done after the programme, it suggests that so far it hasn't actually made any significant impact upon his support. Rather it seems to be the "others" who are gaining support - though at around 8% their total is still very low compared to the 18% minor parties got at the last mayoral election, albeit, that was probably partially to do with the election falling on the same day as the European elections and the consequential boost for UKIP.
Incidentally, Ken Livingstone's campaign responded by saying "This is a welcome opening up of Ken's lead, especially as internet polling has always underestimated Ken's support compared with actual elections and other opinion polls." In terms of comparisons with actual elections they are wrong. The 2000 election was before YouGov's time, so there is only 2004 to compare with, and in polls conducted on the same basis as this one, YouGov called that one exactly right.
Judging from a similiar comment after the last poll, I think the Livingstone campaign are basing their claim on the fact that a YouGov poll prior to the last Mayoral election showed Steve Norris only 2 points behind Ken when really he ended up ten points behind. What actually happened in 2004 was that the final YouGov poll showed both figures for all respondents, and figures for only those certain to vote. The figures for all respondents correctly predicted a 10 point Livingstone victory, the figures for only those certain to vote underestimated Livingstone's support. These recent polls are based on all respondents, not just those certain to vote - so the comparison should with the figures that correctly predicted the 2004 result.
UPDATE: The full figures are up on YouGov's website here. Two things are worth noting. Firstly there is a breakdown of the "others" vote and, despite the rise since the last poll, there is no sign of any of the fringe candidates sticking out above the others. The highest figure is UKIP on 2%. More important to note is the very small sample size. The poll was of only 339 people, about a third of the size of the last poll. Given that a third of respondents were excluded from the final figures because they didn't give voting intentions, these figures are based on only around 240 people. The margin of error on these figures is huge, so we probably shouldn't read too much into changes or lack of them after all.
