YouGov give Tories a commanding lead
A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has voting intentions with changes from their last poll of CON 45% (+2), LAB 32% (nc), LDEM 14% (nc).
The 13 point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever given them, and matches that recorded by ComRes (who tend to produce larger Tory leads than other pollsters) last month. 45% is their highest level of support since 1992 and the highest for any party since MORI started filtering by likelihood to vote, removing some of the towering Labour leads they used to report as their topline figures. On a uniform swing it would produce a Conservative majority of almost 100.
If the trends in this poll are repeated elsewhere then it would suggest the Conservatives have advanced beyond the 40% or so level they've been at for the last few weeks. Meanwhile the Labour party remain at 32% - the same level of support as they recorded in the previous two YouGov polls - despite the immediate air of crisis around the government fading. To say the least, this is not going to help morale within the Labour party.
The Liberal Democrats too are static on 14%. YouGov always tend to show the lowest level of support for them, and much lower than ICM, but across the board the polls suggest the recovery they experienced after Ming Campbell's resignation has stalled. Next week will see Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne elected as their new leader and Liberal Democrat supporters will be hoping that the attendent coverage boosts their profile and support.
