YouGov Daily Poll - 40/27/20
Start of the final week of conference season, so we're back onto the daily YouGov polls. These are the first figures from the Conservative conference, though their first evening was dominated by fuss about Europe. The topline figures, with changes from the YouGov poll yesterday, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 20%(+2).
No sign of a Tory conference boost yet, though they haven't exactly had any good publicity yet. The high point for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats was after their respective leader's speeches, and David Cameron's main speech is not until Thursday. Meanwhile the Lib Dem score in the YouGov daily polls been a bit bouncy...but they're still up there.
Given its prominence yesterday, YouGov also asked a series of questions on Europe. 31% of people said Britain's membership of the EU was a good thing, 40% a bad thing (21% said it was neither good nor bad).
Asked if a Conservative government should offer a referendum on Lisbon even if it had been ratified, 60% of people said they should. Notably the question was prompted with text pointing out that any amendment would need agreement from all the other states, so people were saying yes even in the face of that.
Asked how they would vote in a referendum on Lisbon 18% said yes, 36% said no. 35% said don't know - understandably given people also said they knew very little about the Treaty. Only 18% said they knew a great deal (3%) or a fair amount (15%) about it. 43% said they knw not very much, and 29% nothing at all.
Finally on Europe, YouGov also asked if Britain should support or oppose Tony Blair as a candidate for the first President of the EU. A slight plurality supported him, 41% to 37% opposed. Two-thirds of Labour supporters backed him, 58% of Lib Dems and a quarter of Conservatives.
YouGov also asked about TV debates between leaders again. Only 20% of people preferred the idea of three "pair debates" (Clegg v Brown, Brown v Cameron, Clegg v Cameron), with the three way debate between Cameron, Clegg and Brown far more popular (64%).
Finally YouGov asked about people's expectations of the TV debate and who people thought would perform best. 49% of respondents said Cameron, with 12% expecting Brown to win and 15% expecting Clegg to win. Conservatives overwhelmingly expected Cameron to win. Only 33% of Labour supporters expected Brown to come out top (30% thought Cameron would) and 41% of Lib Dems expected Clegg to win (35% thought Cameron would). That raises an interesting point about expectation management - people already expect David Cameron to wipe the floor with his opponents in any debate, so if he doesn't it will be quite a let down.
