YouGov and ORB referendum polls

Anthony Wells

— 2 min read
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YouGov and ORB have new polls in the Tuesday newspapers. YouGov in the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 39%, LEAVE 46%, Don't know or won't vote 15%. This equates to an eight point LEAVE lead once the don't knows are excluded, the largest that YouGov have shown since David Cameron's draft renegotiation terms were published back in February.

There is also an ORB telephone in the Telegraph. The reporting of ORB polls is somewhat confusing - the Telegraph like to headline the figure for those certain to vote, while ORB have stated that they consider the figure for all voters to be their "headline" figure. Among those certain to vote the new figures are REMAIN 48%(nc), LEAVE 49%(+2). Among all respondents the figure is REMAIN 49%(-3), LEAVE 44%(+4)... hence by ORB's preferred method they still have leave ahead, but there is significant movement towards Leave.

The movement towards Leave is now pretty clear, the overall lead slightly less so:

  • ICM's polls by both online and by telephone, are now showing a clear Leave lead, compared to neck-and-neck and a remain lead earlier in the campaign (and that's despite an online methodology change in late May that helped Remain)
  • The majority of YouGov's polls are now showing Leave ahead, with tonight's showing their biggest leave lead for months
  • ORB's weekly polls have a different side in the lead depending on whether one looks at all voters or certain voters, but either way there has been a clear trend towards Leave. In late May they had Remain leads of 20 points and 13 points respectively, now it's 5 points and minus 1 point.
  • Opinium are still showing a small Remain lead in their recent polls conducted online, though a significant methodology change to weight by social attitudes disguises another large movement towards Leave.

Everyone is showing a movement towards Leave, but the different methodologies mean that for some pollsters that has produced a clear Leave lead, for other pollsters it has brought the race to a neck-and-neck position. Still to come this week we should have phone polls from ComRes and Ipsos MORI; their previous polls in mid-May had solid Remain leads of 11 and 18 points respectively. It will be interesting to see to what extent the Remain lead will be eroded or eliminated in their polls this week (though again, note the pre-announced changed in MORI's methodology that will help Leave anyway).

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