Will a third of Lib Dems vote Labour?
It's another one for John Rentoul's "Questions to which the answer is no". An article
by Sam Coates in the Times says that "Labour’s election planners believe an 8-point gap between the current party of Government and the Tories can be closed. They say that a third of Lib Dem voters have suggested that they might vote Labour, which would equate to 5 percentage points. Meanwhile, they believe that the numbers currently saying they support “others" in polls — greens, BNP and UKIP — may go back to Labour, closing the gap by a further 3 percentage points." More joys from Labour's private polling, but I can guess what the thinking is here from other publically available polls.
If you ask people how likely they are to change their voting intention a majority will often say there is some chance of doing so (exactly how much depends on the question). Take for example the PoliticsHome marginals survey - 61% of people said their was some chance of them changing their vote. It's also worth looking in that poll at what parties those Lib Dem waverers might consider switching to. Of Lib Dem waverers 45% said they would consider voting Labour. Assuming that whatever figures Labour are looking at show roughly the same thing, you can see where they are coming from. If two thirds of Lib Dem voters might consider switching, and half of those might consider voting Labour, there's your extra five points.
Real life, however, doesn't work like that. In most cases people saying they might change their vote is a "never say never" answer, people who really are pretty certain of voting a certain way but don't want to commit themselves totally. In the case of that PoliticsHome poll, the 61% included 33% who said "Unlikely - I may yet change my mind, but I would be surprised if I didn’t end up voting for this party", people who I think are realistically very unlikely to change.
Polls normally show the Lib Dem vote as being the most "uncertain", but I suspect this is more a result of the type of person who votes Lib Dem: more likely to see themselves as a floating voter dissatisfied with the big two. Certainly it is a regular finding in polls, but never translates into the Lib Dem vote collapsing at election time (indeed, more often they gain support in election campaigns, though it's not the given some assume). While Lib Dem voters might claim uncertainty to pollsters, I would be more than surprised if Lib Dem support suddenly dropped by a third over the next 6 months.
It's also worth pointing out that while that PoliticsHome poll showed 45% of potential Lib Dem waverers might vote Labour, it also showed 33% might vote Tory. If the Lib Dems were horribly squeezed, votes could go both ways.
More interesting is actually the fate of "other" voters. While it seems implausible to expect the Lib Dem vote to drop by 5 points, a drop of three points in support for others from their current high sounds more likely. Whether these voters would shift en masse to Labour seems less likely, especially when it comes to UKIP voters.
I'm sure both Labour and the Conservatives could gather some support from Lib Dem waverers, but 5 points worth is just silly. If Labour are to close the gap with the Conservatives, it's more likely to be because people switch back from the Tories.
