What the public think about a "No deal" Brexit
Let us start with the rhetoric. In January Theresa May said that "no deal is better than a bad deal". When polls ask about that sentiment people generally agree with it. When Theresa May first made the statement, YouGov found 48% of people agreed that "no deal is better than a bad deal", 17% thought a "bad deal was better than no deal" (34% agreed with neither or said don't know). SkyData asked a similar question at the start of the month and found 74% of people thought no deal was better than a bad deal, 26% that any deal was better than no deal.
These two questions suggest that the Prime Minister has landed upon a message that chimes with the public, but we don't know what respondents are thinking of as a "bad deal" or "no deal", and whether they think a "no deal" is a good thing or just marginally less awful than a "bad deal". More in depth questions asked around a "no deal" Brexit suggest it would not be widely welcomed.
Questions that have asked specifically about whether people see a "no deal" Brexit as good or bad have consistently shown a negative reaction. In ICM's most recent poll they asked how people would react if "negotiations failed to reach agreement by Brexit Day, and the UK left the EU in a so-called 'hard Brexit'?" 62% of people picked negative words, like worried (50%), confused (29%) and furious (24%), only 20% picked positive words like pleased (14%), proud (11%) or excited (11%).
YouGov asked if people thought it would be good or bad for Britain if we ended up leaving the EU without agreeing departure terms with the EU at all - 57% thought this would be bad, 10% thought it would be good for the country, 20% said neither. Survation asked a very similar question in June (but without a neither option) and found 58% thought it would be bad for Britain, 31% good for Britain.
Of course, this is somewhat missing the point. Given there is significant public support for the sort of Brexit that Theresa May has set out (of immigration controls *and* a trade deal with the EU), a "no deal" Brexit is unlikely to be seen as desirable by the public. It is more a case of whether it is seen as acceptable if negotiations for a better Brexit fall through.
Last week YouGov asked what the government should do if we get to the end of the two year negotiation period and the government have not managed to strike the sort of Brexit deal that Theresa May is seeking: 18% of people said we should stay in the EU after all, 17% that we should delay Britain's departure in order to continue negotiations, 16% that Britain should accept some of the EU's demands in order to reach a compromise, 32% that Britain should leave without a deal. Looking at those who voted to Leave in 2016 and those who voted Tory in 2017, a majority of both groups say Britain should leave without a deal rather than seek to delay Brexit or compromise with the EU.
Opinium's last poll had a very similar question, but with slightly different options. They also asked what people thought should happen if we got to the end of the two year negotiation period without a deal - 15% said we should remain in the EU after all, 35% that we should have a transition deal while negotiations continued, 44% that we should leave without a deal. Again, a majority of Tory voters and Leave voters said that under those circumstances we should leave without a deal.
Summing it all up, a "no deal" Brexit is not something that the British public actually like the idea of - the majority tend to see it in negative terms or as being bad for Britain. However, placed in a position where negotiations for a better deal have failed, a sizeable minority of people (and a majority of Conservatives and Leave voters) would opt for a "no deal" Brexit. Put in that choice between a rock and a hard place, more people would opt for "no deal Brexit" than would opt for remaining in the EU, though a sizeable chunk would take the option of compromise or delay if offered.
