Waiting for the G20 verdict
After a few weeks of rather dull and static polls, we will hopefully have something of interest in the next few days. I am expecting a YouGov poll over the weekend, and Populus's monthly poll for the Times should be in the field and arriving on Tuesday. If we are lucky, there may even be some ad hoc polls outside the normal rota, taking the political temperature after the G20.
What should we expect? Well, the recovery in Labour's ratings at the end of last year was on the back of renewed public optimism that Brown would be able to deal with the economic problems, and approval of the steps he was taking. If there is a positive public reaction to the G20, we may see another boost in Labour ratings (though looking again at the example of last year, unless it is followed by actual green shoots of recovery, I wouldn't count upon it lasting).
On the other hand, since the last polls we have also seen political sleaze back on the media agenda, and the majority of the coverage of Jacqui Smith and her husband's expense claims took place after the last poll. Sleaze doesn't necessarily have a big effect on party support in the polls since the public perception tends to be that all politicians are sleazy, not that party A or party B is. However, coverage will probably add to the impression of a government in decline. It's been pushed off the media agenda by the G20, but I expect it will be back.
