Voters Approve of Starmer Over Sunak, Why do They Prefer Rishi as PM?
As set-piece speeches from both party leaders kick off the political new year, it's worth looking further into where the public stands on the two leaders. Redfield & Wilton's latest tracker presents a seemingly contradictory picture: while the public approves of Keir Starmer, with a net approval of +10%, and disapproves of Rishi, at -4%; they prefer Rishi over Keir as PM. When asked:
"At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom?"
38% (+2) of respondents opt for Sunak, compared to 36% (-3) for Starmer. The large shift in previous polling, of 5% in the net margin, should introduce some caution, though it could also be explained by the large space of time in between polls.
The trend of Sunak outperforming his approval on the "best PM" question is also observable in Opinium's polling, though not with YouGov. The obvious explanation is incumbency bias. Naturally, voters might be more inclined to favour the current Prime Minister in the role over the Leader of the Opposition, irrespective of party affiliations. Prime Ministers have access to greater media coverage, voters gain familiarity with them and they know they're (at least somewhat) up to the job.
This may be especially pronounced in Redfield & Wilton's question, which is prefaced with the phrase "At this moment". Given the Conservatives currently sit on a large parliamentary majority, this may well predispose respondents to opt for Rishi.
Taking a closer look into the responses, both Starmer and Sunak see relatively similar proportions of their 2019 voters sticking by them. Considering the state of the national picture, this represents a very strong showing for the Conservatives - this does add to the weight of evidence behind the fact that Rishi vs Keir is a far closer contest than Labour vs The Conservatives.
Crucially, those who didn't vote in 2019 are far more in favour of Rishi Sunak than Keir Starmer. This is especially stark when comparing the voting intention of the same cohort, who overwhelmingly support Labour over the Conservatives - by 24% to 6%. One explanation for why voting intention amongst this group is so out of kilter with their preferred PM is the large proportion who don't intend to vote at the next election, at around 57%. Although Labour leads by a significant margin amongst the rest, the majority are not committed to either party. While this alleviates some of the apparent disparity, it's also possible that these voters are less partisan and so simply opt for the current Prime Minister.
The question of which party leader would make the best PM is conventionally seen as a good barometer of electoral performance, and Rishi outperforming his already relatively strong personal ratings is certainly a positive for him. Perhaps it's even another argument in favour of a "President Rishi" strategy. This is only one poll however - and one with wording inclined to lend support to his column at that - so his supporters shouldn't get too far ahead of themselves.
