Tory members reject Con-Lib Coalition

A poll of Conservative Party members by ConservativeHome ha found that the overwhelming majority of Conservative party members would baulk at the idea of a coalition in the event of a hung Parliament. 15% of respondents said they would support a Con/LD coalition, 3% said they would support a Con/Lab coalition and 1% said they would favour a grand coalition of all three parties. The majority of party members polled said they would prefer a minority Conservative government that formed ad hoc deals with other parties on individual issues. 21% said they would prefer no deals whatsoever.

Asked their opinion on various Liberal Democrat policy stances, the only issues where was was strong common ground between Tory party members and the Lib Dems was opposition to ID cards and greater devolution of power to local associations, though significant minorities of Conservative members sympathised with Lib Dem support for shifting the burden on taxation onto environmental taxes and opposing the war in Iraq. Other Lib Dem policies met with strong opposition, including a local income tax, support for the human rights act and proportional representation - always assumed to be the policy that the Liberal Democrats' would make their bottom line in any coalition talks - which was opposed by 81% of Tory party members.

At the next election it will require a swing of only 1.5% from Labour to the Conservatives to produce a hung Parliament. In contrast, it would take a swing of over 7% for the Conservatives to secure an overall majority, making a hung Parliament seem a very likely scenario. If the Conservatives end up as the largest party in a hung Parliament though, this survey suggests that any formal coalition would face difficulties from Conservative activists in theory at least. Of course, if such a scenario does arise, it may well be that, in the euphoria of ousting Labour and

with the possibility of actually forming a government just a tantalising coalition deal away, Tory activists might be rather more favourably disposed...

Tim will be publishing the rest of the results from the poll tomorrow.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management