The Republican Primary Race

I don't typically write much about US polls and elections, mostly because there are many American polling blogs that can do it far better and more thoroughly than I could ever hope to do. I did want to share the chart below though, from Mark Blumenthal's Pollster (now part of Huffington Post), showing support for candidates in the Republican primary race so far.

The Republican Primary race has been a rather fascinating battle to be the "not-Romney" - Mitt Romney's support has remained relatively consistent across the last six months, with various right-wing alternatives coming to the fray, consolidating the support of those Republicans who want someone other than Romney to be the candidate, before fading again. Looking at the graph above you can see Michelle Bachman peakig in July, before being overshadowed by Rick Perry's entry to the race. Perry himself faded after poor performances in debates, to be replaced in turn by the pizza magnate Herman Cain. Cain peaked in October, but has started to fall since becoming embroiled in allegations of sexual harrassment.

The latest couple of polls show Newt Gingrich becoming the latest non-Romney - a poll from ORC has Gingrich at 22% to Romney's 24% (with Cain down to 14%), PPP has Gingrich at 28% to Cain's 25% and Romney's 18%. Another seven November polls have shown Gingrich on the rise. It remains to be seen whether it will last, or whether he'll crash and burn like all the other non-Romney's before him.

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