Immigration

Conservative Small Boats Policy Making Headway

The Government's campaigning and legislation on small boats and immigration appears to be having a positive effect on the Conservatives' perception on the issue. Ipsos MORI today released research into trust in the government's ability to handle immigration and there are clear signs of progress for the party.

The Conservative Party is now tied with Labour on trust over most aspects of immigration policy - around 33% of voters trust each party on the issues of immigration, asylum seekers and dealing with Channel crossings. The Conservatives do have a small lead, of 9%, over trust on making it more difficult to enter the country. This all speaks to the success of Conservative Party's offensive on the issue - just a month ago, Labour was leading across each area.

Conservative gains on the issue are driven, in large part, by a consolidation amongst their former supporters. The above chart shows the increasing proportion of 2019 voters who now trust the party on various policy areas. This speaks to why the party may feel more comfortable on the issue. Their support base is far more united on the topic of immigration - they have little to lose from a hard-line strategy. This can be contrasted to Labour's position, as the party tries to win the support of marginal voters whilst placating their more liberal voter base.

Although the Conservatives have made progress, the party still faces turbulent waters. They are still barely tied with Labour - even after weeks of announcements and on an area they have traditionally dominated. There is also a risk they alienate more liberal sections of their support base, which might work against them in metropolitan or "Blue Wall" seats.

This is not to mention the fact it is just one poll, and that so far, we have only seen policy announcements and not their impact. With a relatively stable average Labour lead of 20%, and immigration still below health and the economy on voters' priorities, it's by no means smooth sailing ahead for the Conservatives.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management