Sunday's voting intention polls
There are (so far at least), five GB voting intention polls in the Sunday papers.
YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 45%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the YouGov/Times/Sky poll mid-week. (tabs)
SavantaComRes/S Telegraph - CON 41%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 5%(-2). Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from the midweek poll for the Telegraph (tabs)
Opinium/Observer - CON 44%(+3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 14% (-1), BREX 6% (nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from last week. Tables here.
BMG/Independent - CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 16%(nc), BREX 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Friday. Changes would be from last week, though in this case, the party shares are unchanged.
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday - CON 45%(+4), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 11%(-5), BREX 6%(nc). Changes are from last week.
There are differences in how companies have dealt with the Brexit party. As discussed earlier in the week, YouGov are only letting people pick Brexit party if they live in a seat where the Brexit party are standing. ComRes are allowing people to pick the Brexit party everyone, but are not including them in their main prompt. BMG are still including them everywhere, but will be adopting candidate lists from next week. I'm unclear what Deltapoll or Opinium are currently doing. Given Thursday was close of nominations and full candidate lists are now available, I'd expect many companies to switch to showing people the actual parties standing in their seats from next week.
We've got a mixture of the pollsters who tend to show bigger Tory leads and the pollsters who tend to show smaller ones here - showing the contrast between different companies. Three of the companies publishing tonight (YouGov, Opinium and Deltapoll) gave the Conservatives leads up in the mid-teens, with Conservatives at 44-45% and Labour at 28-30%. The other two companies (ComRes and BMG) both showed an eight point lead (though there is some contrast between their figures, BMG have both the Conservatives and Labour signficantly lower than ComRes). (For those interested in the potential reasons behind the differences in the polls, I wrote more about it back in September.)
Perhaps more important is the trend - there is little sign of the Conservative lead narrowing here. Three of the polls have it growing (by 3, 3 and 4 points), ComRes have it narrowing by 2 (though their mid-week poll had the Tory lead growing by two, so the two cancel out), BMG have everything static. Next week the Labour manifesto is released, so has the potential to change things around. I would note, however, that the impact the manifestos had in 2017 was very much the exception to the rule. Historically the publication of manifestos has not tended to have any obvious impact upon party support.
