Sunday round up

First up, there is a new Scottish poll today by Progressive Scottish Opinion. Topline figures are...

Holyrood constituency: CON 11%, LAB 43%, LDEM 5%, SNP 37% Holyrood regional: CON 11%, LAB 44%, LDEM 4%, SNP 37%

Secondly there's a clarification about the ComRes AV poll from last night - it was turnout weighted... but apprently by how likely people are to vote in a general election, not how likely they are to vote in the referendum. For the record, without turnout weighting the figures would have been YES 33%, NO 34%, Don't know 34%, so would still have shown NO ahead, albeit by the tinest of whiskers.

Finally the tables for the YouGov/Sunday Times poll are up here. There are a couple of interesting findings there - first there were a series on questions on David Cameron and how well he is doing at the job of Prime Minister. A majority (65%) of people thought that Cameron has good presentational skills and that he had a vision for the country's future (61%) and on balance people thought he was capable of getting his policies into action (by 44% to 34%).

Cameron scored less well on the more "managerial" measures. Only 33% thought he was a good manager, with 45% disagreeing, 35% thought he had a good grip on government, but 43% disagreed. On the bottom line question on whether people thought he was up to the job or not opinion was split down the middle - 42% think he is, 43% think he is not.

As well as the usual well/badly questions for the party leaders (Cameron scored minus 13, Miliband minus 15 and Clegg minus 46), YouGov also asked them for a selection of cabinet ministers. The most positive (or least negative!) score was for Theresa May on minus 7 followed by William Hague on minus 10. George Osborne was on minus 14, Andrew Lansley and Vince Cable were both on minus 19, Michael Gove minus 21).

Amongst other things the poll also asked about the census. 25% of think think the next census should be scrapped, compared to 58% who think it should be continued. 22% find the questions in the census intrusive, 43% do not (35% aren't sure).

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management