Sunday polls
There are four voting intention polls this Sunday. Opinium, ORB in the Sunday Telegraph, YouGov in the Sunday Times, ICM in the Sun on Sunday. Topline voting intentions are:
YouGov: CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 6%(+1) (tabs) ORB: CON 46%(+4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc) (tabs) Opinium: CON 46%(-1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc) (tabs) ICM: CON 46%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 8%(nc)
Changes are from last week for ORB and Opinium, from the midweek Times & Guardian polls for YouGov and ICM. All continue to show a robust lead for the Conservative party. Note that fieldwork for all of these was before the local election results (YouGov is conducted Thursday evening and Friday morning, but the vast bulk would have been before many results were known) so don't expect to see any local election impact yet: it's the sort of thing that could have an impact, in terms of parties looking doomed or successful, like a wasted vote or a foregone conclusion.
The YouGov poll is the first one since Theresa May's midweek speech about the EU supposedly attempting to influence the election result. 51% of people said that the claim that EU officials and politicians were deliberately trying to influence the general elections were "probably true", 24% that they were probably false. There was clear divide down party lines and by attitudes to the EU - 72% of people who voted to Leave thought it was probably true, only 35% of those who voted to Remain.
On a related topic YouGov also asked about the "exit bill" for leaving the EU. In principle, 32% of people thought it was reasonable for other EU countries to ask Britain to pay for outstanding financial liabilities like pension costs and spending agreed before we leave, 50% of people think it unreasonable. Presented with some specific costs, people were evenly split over whether a settlement of £10bn was reasonable, but 53% thought £20bn was unreasonable, 64% thought £50bn was unreasonable, 72% thought that £100bn was unreasonable. In practice I suspect it isn't the specific figure that's at issue (I bet if we'd offered £5bn than some people would have said that was reasonable and then rejected £10bn) - these are all figures that sound unfathomably huge - it's the idea of having to pay to leave the EU. The key thing for the government won't be the size of the payment, but how they manage to present it. If it's a leaving fee, people will hate it. If they can twist it into being seen as a fee for some continuing benefit it may be more saleable - 42% of people said that Britain should be prepared to pay a financial settlement it is the only way of getting a trade deal.
UPDATE: Added the ICM poll!
