Survation

SNP Tops Polls Despite Dissatisfaction Spreading North of the Border

A new poll for The Scotsman, conducted by Survation, points to mixed fortunes for the Scottish National Party. Despite topping the polls in Westminster voting intention, with their 44% representing a 13% lead over Labour, the party is not perceived to be managing Scottish governance well.

A majority of voters think the party is performing "not well" across a range of policy areas: including 61% on both the NHS and the economy, commonly held as the top issues facing the country. This could suggest the SNP is not immune to the effects of government dissatisfaction, now so prevalent in the UK as a whole.

The polling adds to the somewhat conflicted picture in Scotland, especially when voting intention on independence is considered. The pollster poses the question with non-standard wording, asking if Scotland should "remain" a member of the UK or leave, and finds 59% are in favour of remaining compared to 41% for leave. This seems a stark margin, though the divergent phrasing certainly should introduce caution.

Although this is by no means conclusive, the results are indicative of a margin of support in favour of a "No" vote. This comes as the finding marks no change on Survation's result from September 2022, a period in which most polls were finding leads against independence.

To add to the SNP's headaches, the poll finds a majority of Scots, 54%, are opposed to the next General Election being presented as a 'de-facto' independence referendum. This could add context to their vote share of 44%, which is slightly lower than in 2019 and significantly more so than some other Scottish polls have suggested.

Survation also has results for Scottish voting intention to Holyrood, in both the regional list and on a constituency level as represented below.

Similar to Westminster, although the SNP are out on top the results are lower than in previous election results and polls since 2019. Overall, it should lend caution to drawing any sweeping conclusions on the state of Scottish opinion, particularly on independence.

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