SNP ahead as possiblity of early election looms
The Sunday Times today has a new YouGov poll for Scotland. The full voting intention figures, with changes from YouGov's last Scottish poll, which was conducted right at the end of October and had shown a move back towards Labour, are below.
Westminster voting intention: CON 20%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 12%(+1), SNP 27%(-2). Holyrood constituency: CON 13%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 38%(-1). Holyrood regional: CON 15%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(nc), SNP 34%(+2), GRN 6%(nc), SSP 4%(nc).
As you can see, the figures are largely steady, with the shift from the SNP back towards Labour being maintained. Only on the regional vote has there been a slight shift back towards the SNP, thouh arguably this is the most important vote in determining the actual seats won at a Scottish election. It also suggests that the SNP would win an early election if one is indeed held over the current Scottish budget deadlock. The Sunday Times projects that if these levels of support were repeated at a Scottish Parliamentary election the SNP would retain 47 seats, with Labour losing 2 and the Lib Dems 3. The Greens would gain 3 seats, the SSP 2 and the Conservatives 1.
On the specific question of the Scottish budget, 79% of respondents said they thought there should be a fresh election were the budget defeated again.
Alex Salmond remains in the lead as the best first minister by 20 points, and is the only party leader with a positive approval rating (plus 11), followed by Annabelle Goldie (-3), Iain Gray (-17), Tavish Scott (-19) and Patrick Harvie (-25). Where his rating has fallen is on the economy - at least in comparison to Gordon Brown. Back in September 36% trusted Salmond more on the economy than Brown (26%). Now they are even on 33%.
Finally, support for independence has again fallen marginally - 29% would vote YES in a referendum, with 55% voting NO. In October the figures were 31% to 53%.
