Sir David Butler, Pioneer of Electoral Science, Dies at 98
Sir David Butler died on 8th November, at the age of 98. Butler was a trailblazer of electoral studies. He first began analysing election results in terms of percentages in 1945, though is perhaps most renowned for his work in developing the concept of swing. Often known as the father of psephology, it was Butler himself who coined the term.
Michael Crick, a biographer and friend of Sir David, describes how as a 20 year-old soldier in defeated Germany, Butler was asked to give a speech to troops outlining the policy platform of Labour and the Conservatives. In this way he may have been the longest surviving person to have influenced the 1945 election. Butler went on to have a distinguished career in electoral commentary and academia, as he covered General Elections for the BBC between 1950 and 1979.
The BBC's Nick Robinson remembered Butler as the "grand daddy" of electoral commentary, whilst flags at Nuffield College, Oxford are flying at half-mast. Anthony Wells, Polling Report's founder, added his voice to tributes: "As a student of elections it was always sort of awe inspiring to be able to sit and talk to David Butler. It was like a mathematician getting to sit and talk to Archimedes, or a Physicist getting to meet Newton. 'Oh yes, and this is the guy who invented the subject.'"
Butler's influence on electoral commentary is difficult to overstate- Polling Report's own seat prediction model would likely not be possible without him. His death marks a great loss to the discipline.
