Should Turkey be allowed to join the EU?

Earlier this week the EU agreed to start membership talks with Turkey. Turkish entry raises a number of questions - Turkey would be the first country with a mainly Muslim population to join the EU, and the majority of its area is in Asia, rather than Europe. There are also questions over its human rights record. The British government has always been a supporter of Turkish entry, not least because it is thought that Turkey's membership might slow the pressure for European integration.

Turkish entry into the EU has never been a particularly contentious subject in the UK, unlike in some other European countries. The last time a British newspaper poll asked about it was a YouGov poll for the Telegraph back in December 2004, which found that 30% of British people supported Turkey joining the EU, while 42% of people opposed it, 28% didn't know.

Despite this low level of support, Britain is actually one of the most pro-Turkish countries in Europe. The question of Turkish membership was also included in the lastest Eurobarometer survey by TNS. This found that 45% of British people supported Turkish entry, compared to 37% who opposed it - a net approval of +8 (the difference between this and the YouGov poll last year is likely to be because YouGov explictly said in the question that Turkey was a 'mainly Muslim' country, the Eurobarometer survey did not).

Compare this to countries like Italy (net disapproval of -19), Belgium (net disapproval of -25), France (-49), Germany (-53) and Austria (-70!). Sweden, Spain and Portgual and many of the new member states are roughly inline with British opinion, but the populations of the other core EU states are solidly against Turkish entry.

So why the difference? To an extent it is probably a reflection of the fact that British people are less interested in the internal issues of the European Union, but the Eurobarometer survey does give some clues. The survey included a list of statements about Turkish entry, and asked respondents if they agreed or disagreed.

There are some interesting differences - Swedish respondents seemed to share the concerns of the rest of the EU about Turkey's economy and human rights record, but strongly agreed with the statements that Turkish entry would improve stability in the region and help improve understanding between 'European and Muslim values', so their support seems to be because they think the positive benefits of having Turkey on board outweigh the negative factors.

Support from Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the UK on the other hand seems to stem from people not sharing the fears of other member states - only 69% of Portugese respondents thought that Turkey's human rights record was a problem, compared to 83% of people across the EU as a whole and over 95% in countries like Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands. Across Europe as a whole 76% thought Turkey would have to improve its economy, but in Ireland, UK, Spain and Portugal the figures were all consistently lower.

Given the fears raised about immigration to the UK from Eastern Europe in the last round of EU expansion, you may be somewhat surprised to find that the UK was one of the countries least worried about the effect Turkish entry would have on immigration - 52% thought that Turkish entry would favour more immigration into developed countries, only Luxembourg and Lithuania were less concerned. It is immigration that seems to be what lies behind the opposition to Turkish entry in some other countries - in Austria, the country most-opposed to Turkish entry, 78% of respondents thought Turkish entry would favour more immigration.