Second Survation Makerfield Poll Confirms Burnham Lead
Survation has bravely conducted a new second poll of the Makerfield constituency. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between May 26 and June 1.
The survey was done by telephone interview. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data and the results of the 2024 UK General Election.
This poll has Burnham increasing his lead compared to their previous constituency poll from 3 weeks ago where he was polling 43% to Reform's 40%. He now has a comfortable 10 point lead on 49% to 40%.
Survation claim that the margin of error with this sample of 518 is 95% certain that the “true” value would fall within 4.8 percentage points of the sample result. Effectively they are claiming that Andy Burnham has it in the bag with his 10 point lead being greater than the margin of error.
This ties in with anecdotal reports that Burnham is outperforming the Labour Party nationally. Restore Britain are also hurting the Reform vote, out polling the Greens, Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives combined. Astonishing if this proves true on election day.