Populus show no G20 bounce for Labour
Populus have a new poll in the Times tomorrow, the second since the G20. The topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 30%(nc) LDEM 18%(-1). The poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday.
This is the second poll since the G20 conference but, unlike YouGov, shows no boost for Labour. In fact the Conservatives are up slightly, though clearly the 1 point change is not significant. Of course, polls vary and are subject to a margin of error, so perhaps other companies will produce better figures for Labour, but with only a small boost from YouGov and no boost at all from Populus, I think we can conclude that the G20 has not had a major effect.
In Peter Riddell's commentary he ponders whether there was a small boost picked up by YouGov, which had already evaporated by the time Populus finished their poll. That's just about plausible - both polls went into the field on Friday, but the vast majority of YouGov's would have been concluded on Friday, while Populus were still interviewing on Sunday. Perhaps the G20 boost didn't last once the coverage had finished and the media got back onto MP expenses claims.
On the subject of expenses, a substantial majority (69%) of people thought that most MPs were absusing their expenses to some extent. 20% thought many MPs did, but a majority did not, and only 8% thought it was just a few bad eggs. Polling on many subjects shows a contrast between people's perception of public services at a national level and their own local area - polls typically find, for example, that people have better opinions of their local hospitals or schools than they do the NHS or education system as a whole. The same applies to MPs... but not by that much. 34% think their own MP is abusing the system, with 38% thinking their own MP does not. 28% didn't know.
A week or so ago when YouGov asked if people would prefer keeping MPs expenses but tightening them up, or abolishing their expenses and giving them a higher salary instead I said that my guess was that "had the option been given to just stop giving MPs lots of their expenses it would be been a preferred option". Populus did just that, and my guess was right: 19% thought the allowances should be scrapped and replaced with a higher salary, 22% would prefer the allowances to remain, but be more tightly regularly. 56% however would rather MPs second home allowance be scrapped without giving them any replacement.
Finally, on the G20 itself we saw the same pattern as YouGov and ICM reported - the great majority of people were supportive, but there was very little enthusiasm. 74% of people had some degree of confidence that the measures would help the economy, but that was made up of only 8% who had a great deal of confidence and 66% with a "little confidence". Figures were marginally higher on confidence that it would help the global economy recover (11% and 68%).
