Populus show lowest Tory lead since April
Populus's monthly poll in the Times is out and has voting intention figures - with changes from their last poll - of CON 41%(-4), LAB 35%(+5), LDEM 16%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 7th and 9th November, so is the first to be carried out after the Glenrothes by-election and the interest rate cut.
The Conservative level of support is at the lower end of the support they've registered in recent polls, but is not particularly out of line. More notable is the big increase in Labour support, the five point boost to 35% gives them their highest level of support in any poll since March and the highest from Populus since November last year. On a uniform swing it would produce a very hung Parliament indeed - even the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats together would only scrape a majority.
There will be plenty of speculation about what has caused the sharp narrowing of the gap. The by-election and the interest rate cut are the obvious candidates, though actually rather a lot has gone on since the previous Populus poll. Their last survey was at the beginning of October, way back before the bailout of the banks and the fuss over George Osborne, Peter Mandleson and the luxury yacht. My guess is that this is actually a result of either Glenrothes or the rate cut - while strictly speaking one should only ever compare one pollster's figures to figures from the same company, ICM and Populus's methodology have relatively minor differences and immediately prior to Glenrothes ICM were showing a 13 point lead.
As to which - who knows? A high profile by-election win can have a surprisingly large effect on polling figures (look for example at the effect Brent East had on the Lib Dems). One wouldn't normally expect interest rates to have a big effect, but in this case the highly personalised intervention of Gordon Brown to make banks pass on rates could have had an effect. There's another reason to think that may be the cause which I'll come back to at the end of this post.
Looking at other questions in the poll, we still find the contrast between preferences now and in the longer term future. Gordon Brown has a large lead over David Cameron as the "right leader to deal with Britain's economy in a recession" (52% to 32%). However, David Cameron beats Brown when people are asked who is "better able to lead Britain forward after the next general election" (42% to 35%).
On the leader ratings Gordon Brown receives higher ratings than David Cameron for the first time, albeit narrowly, scoring 5.04 to Cameron's 4.94. Nick Clegg scores 4.08, the lowest recorded by any Lib Dem leader to date.
Turning specifically to the economy Populus also asked about how effective various solutions would be in helping the economy. The route that met with the most public support was that which has actally happened - a big cut in interest rates - which 77% of people thought would be effective. Almost as popular was increased public spending on construction projects and house building (73%). A slightly smaller, but still solid majority (63%) thought "tax cuts even if it boosts government borrowing" would be effective.
When the consequences of borrowing are mentioned in the question though enthusiasm starts to falter. Asked about
"increased public borrowing now to boost the economy in the short term even if it means higher taxes and slower spending growth in the long term" only 40% think it would be effective, with 49% disagreeing.
Finally, while economic optimism for the country as a whole remains low - 66% think the country will fare baly next year, the second lowest Populus have recorded in five years, economic optimism for people's personal financial position has become positive. 51% think them and their family will do well financially in the next year with 44% thinking they will do badly. In contrast people's expectations for their own financial future back in July was strongly negative and this switch could be a big factor in the government's recovery.
It does, however, also highlight a vulnerability. What if Labour's recovery is based on people's expectation that they themselves won't suffer in the downturn... but then they do? That gap between expections and what is actually likely to happen in an economic downturn raises the question of what will happen when people's expectations hit reality...
