Expert Panel Survey Predicts Triple Digit Majority for Labour

Share
Expert Panel Survey Predicts Triple Digit Majority for Labour

Last week we ran our first survey of visitors to the UK Polling Report site, who we are calling our ‘expert panel’ because  by virtue of you being here, you obviously take more interest than most in the detail of the polls. 307 of you answered between June 7 & 16, of whom around a third saw themselves as some kind of ‘insider’ (in politics, academia, or media). 

There are no big surprises here - nearly everyone expects a strong Labour victory, with the average prediction being a majority of 143 seats.

About half of you think that the electorate makes the right choice all or most of the time, with supporters of the Conservatives being the most positive on that (76%) and Labour the most negative (39%), no doubt influenced by the respective levels of their success over the years.

Most believe that Nigel Farage will win Clacton (65% of you say he will, 24% say he won’t).

See link here for the table of results, and below that some of the comments you made. Most of you made a comment and the quality was high - see below for a small selection (half were selected for quality and half randomly).

Thank you very much to all who took part. We’ll have another survey soon - if you want to join the panel, click here.

Expert Comments:

A change of government will not bring about a change in major policies.

As neither contender is truly popular it will depend on effectively tactical voting by the electorate and to that extent is unpredictable.

Britain is divided. This election will do nothing to help that. We are becoming a nasty country.

CON deliberately losing.

Conservative Party deserve a significant loss of seats for their management of public services, economy and immigration

I am only likely to vote Conservative because the party I would like to vote for isn't standing

I believe we are on the cusp of a Reformation on the Right of British Politics. The Tories will only get between 50 = 100 seats and after the election a 'New' (possibly Reform) right of centre party will effectively replace the Tories

I don't think any polling or projection model, including aggregation and large-n MRP models, has done a great job of factoring in tactical voting (because it's impossible to predict the extent to which this will occur and because tactical voting decisions often don't get made until the last week of the campaign)

I think most people have lost faith in our political leaders & our way of life is at risk.

I'm 69 years old and this is the first election I've wondered about spoiling my ballot, so disillusioned am I with the choices offered and the trustworthiness of promises made.

I’m hearing a surprising number of people who I wouldn’t expect to support Reform say they’ve been impressed by Nigel Farage

I’m on a knife edge as to how I’m going to vote in the election.

In every election the polls have always narrowed, I don't understand how this election will be any different.

Its not an election anymore , its a referendum on immigration.

Labour too frightened to talk about Europe because they would have to tell Leave supporters that they've been conned. Tories can't brag about Brexit benefits because there aren't any. I hate Farage et al, but Reform's sizable support leading to a tiny number of seats shows how crazy FPTP really is in a multiparty environment.

Large Labour majority. Tory party split in two with the reform vote taking the right of the party. Failure after election for Tory party to regain center right will see them out of gouvernement for a long time. Maybe 2 or 3 election cycles.

More should be looked at about who in the likely Labour Government people actually know/trust. Compared to '97 the incoming cabinet are barely known.

No matter how often we vote against socialism, the Tories force it on us.

Perhaps the biggest issue facing a new Labour government is a society awash with more misinformation than ever before

The combination of significant constituency boundary revisions, impact of Brexit, Covid and Ukraine in quick succession makes this is the most uncertain election I have ever witnessed (since 1974). I think the polls are wrong at the detail level. Apart from Labour being the largest party, everything else is impossible to predict.

The conservatives should have waited till the autumn

The public cannot get the government they want, due to the voting-system we use in the UK. Millions of Green and Reform votes will simply be ignored

The Reform vote will fall in the final weeks of the campaign, leading to a number of seats that current predictions suggest will go labour to actually vote conservative. However the 'Red Wall' will be rebuilt, along with gains in London and the Midlands will lead to a tight labour majority.

The Tories will never fully recover from this election and the right will splinter into several factions.

The UK has massive democratic challenges to solve. Much of the debate is centred around proportional representation but that is merely scratching the surface of the problems with representation and doesn't begin to deal with oversight, accountability and the realities of our position in the world. Unlike all other major western democracies, our lack of a formal constitution, no true Judicial independence, the blurring of lines between Legislative and Executive and an Upper Chamber with no clear role and even less democratic accountability has left this country swinging in the winds of political short-termism. The result of the truly awful recent strategic decisions made against the long term interests of our citizens will hurt us for decades no matter the electoral cycle. If democracy in the UK is to matter, our conventions and our politics need to adopt the basic foundations of democracy we no longer have. Magna Carta was written here, it is cited by almost every other Democracy. Yet not a single part of it remains in our Laws. With no consent of the Governed, there is no Democracy, merely the appearance thereof.

There has been much talk about whether this election looks more like 1992 or 1997. I think the better analogy is the 1830s/1840s. Following the repeal of the Corn Laws the Tories morphed from a landed party to Peel's free marketeers re-branded "Conservative". The modern Conservatives have been discombobulated by the Brexit (which is a kind of Corn Laws moment for modern politics) and will need to be fundamentally changed to a party that reflects post-Brexit Britain. That will probably require a heavy defeat and an eventual merger with Reform. The metamorphosis will probably take a decade or so but I think that Starmer's Labour is so utterly unreformed (corporatist, statist, high tax, pro-EU establishment) that it will be judged by the electorate as a continuation of the Blair Cameron Sunak consensus. If so, I expect it to be rejected at the polls in 2029 and a more Reform like Conservative Party, possibly led by Nigel Farage, to win a small working majority.

This election was lost during party gate, the refusal to take responsibility for breaking lock-down rules, and the Truss debacle. Rishi Sunak had no chance of turning things around, the public had already made their minds up.

This election will change the face of UK politics forever

This is the most predictable election of my life. The conservatives have ignored their voters and the subsequent anger is reflected in the opinion polls. Lie to your voters and feel their wrath.

Your question concerning whether the population gets the "right" election result is complex and doesn't really lend itself to the simple answers on offer. My answer attempts to say that the electorate gets what it deserves.