The first poll since the Conservative party conference shows a shift in support to the Conservatives. The YouGov poll for Channel 4 has voting intention figures of CON 36%(+4) LAB 40%(-3) LDEM 13%(-2). The poll was conducted yesterday afternoon and evening and this morning, so after David
Iain Dale is claiming that he's heard on the grapevine that an ICM poll tomorrow shows a 3 point Conservative lead, the first since Brown became leader. No confirmation yet; no idea if it's true. UPDATE - not true after all, seems those were interim figures
At the weekend MORI had a poll in the Observer that showed voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 41%, LDEM 16%. They also published the findings from their regular monthly monitor showing thing like the most important issues facing the country (currently topped by immigration and crime, which has fallen
The Conservatives big announcement at the start of their conference was a pledge to cut inheritance tax. A lot of the discussion over this has been about how few (or how many) people will actually benefit from it. That's a discussion for somewhere else - here on UK
Over the last couple of weeks I've been concentrating perhaps more than usual on the headline voting intentions figure. Mostly that's because the big issue has become whether Labour's lead is solid enough to tempt Gordon Brown into an election, but I'm
Unlike the YouGov and Populus polls in recent days an Ipsos-MORI poll in the Observer doesn't show any sign of a conference boost for Labour - the topline figures with changes from the last MORI poll, conducted directly prior to the Labour conference, are CON 34%(nc), LAB
When YouGov gave Labour an eleven point lead in the week I think most people were somewhat sceptical, and rightly so - it was a snap poll with less than the normal sample size conducted in a hurry straight after Gordon Brown's conference speech. A new YouGov poll
Labours press office seem to have made great things of the cross breaks of the last YouGov poll, since it showed a whopping 17 point lead amongst female voters. I've seen various articles by commentators* who have been briefed about it showing how women has defected en masse
A snap YouGov poll with fieldwork conducted on Monday afternoon through to Tuesday - so directly after Gordon Brown's conference speech - has headline figures of CON 33% (nc), LAB 44% (+5!), LDEM 13% (-3). The Conservative figure is believable enough, but the Liberal Democrat and Labour figures
A new Ipsos-MORI poll in the Sun on Monday has voting intentions of CON 34%(-2), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 14%(-2). There are no dates available for the fieldwork yet - sometimes MORI's polls do take slightly longer to reach the papers, especially the monthly face-to-face polls,
An ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror has voting intention figures, with changes from their poll taken at the very height of the Northern Rock crisis, of CON 33%(+1), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 19%(-1). The change in this poll alone is not significant, but it is similar to
Everything I'm hearing is that it's increasingly likely that there will be an election called during the next fortnight, possibly next week. My own best guess was that, if Brown was going to call an election this year (which I didn't think he would!
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