First Poll since Cameron's Speech - UPDATED
The first poll since the Conservative party conference shows a shift in support to the Conservatives. The YouGov poll for Channel 4 has voting intention figures of CON 36%(+4) LAB 40%(-3) LDEM 13%(-2). The poll was conducted yesterday afternoon and evening and this morning, so after David Cameron had finished his speech.
Like the YouGov poll for Channel 4 after Brown's speech this is a snap poll with a somewhat sample than a normal YouGov poll (though, I hasten to add, it isn't actually that small.) It's also important to note that it was taken immediately after Cameron spoke, when he was still splashed all over the newspapers and new bullettins (actually, most of it would have been before today's papers), so you would expect him to get a boost... on the other hand the YouGov snap poll showing a Labour lead of 11 points straight after Brown's speech was backed up by a normal full size YouGov poll a couple of days later that also showed an 11 point lead.
UPDATE - Populus's poll has figures of CON 36%(+5), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 15%(-2). This too was apparantly conducted after Cameron's speech. There is also an ICM poll to come, and one for the Independent which will presumably be by ComRes.
UPDATE 2 - Here's another - ICM have figures of CON 38%(+5), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 16%(-3). Like YouGov this one was conducted after David Cameron's speech, on the 3rd and 4th October.
UPDATE 3 - Bizarre. The Guardian was orginally reporting that their poll showed a 1 point Labour lead, but now they've changed the story to say the figures are CON 38%(+5), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 16%(-3), so neck and neck. Presumably the earlier story was based on interim figures, since it had a sample size of something like 977, while the final story refers to the sample size being 1,008. The poll was conducted on the 3rd and 4th October.
Where does this leave a November general election? Thanks to boundary changes a 4 point lead would end producing about the same majority as Brown has now, less than that would be a lower majority - at neck and neck Brown would lose his majority entirely. It is perfectly possible that a meagre lead could be eroded during an election campaign, either by a drift of Labour support towards the Lib Dems, who are unlikely to stay as low as this once they have the guaranteed news coverage and election brings, or by the campaign itself. Labour could easily do worse than the uniform swing result predicted by these figures thanks to the new incumbency boost of the Conservative MPs who were first elected in 2005, or if there are differential swings in the south of the country or in marginals. A lead of this size certainly isn't enough for Brown to be sure that he will maintain his majority, or in fact win an overall majority at all.
Obviously there is a very good chance - a probablity even - that this is a Conservative conference boost that will decline, but if you were Gordon Brown would you want to gamble your government on that assumption?
Not calling an election wouldn't be painless either though. The election speculation has reached the point that much of the media now assumes that Brown has pretty much decided he will call an election. If he now doesn't call one, especially if it becomes clear he isn't calling one after the Conservatives show an increase in the polls, it's going to look very bad. One of the major positives in Brown's public image, if not the major positive, is that he is seen as strong - the big, tough, brave leader who can be relied upon. The perception that David Cameron giving a speech is enough to make Brown run away and hide has the potential to severely damage perceptions of Brown as a strong, brave leader.
The actual fuss over him not calling an election would be a temporary thing that would pass - he'll have a week of being laughed at and called frit in the Commons, but he'll cope - but if real damage is done to underlying perceptions of Brown as a strong figure then that'll last, and that'll hurt.
There will be more polls over the weekend, who knows what they'll show. Either way, it's going to be a tough decision for Brown.
