ICM poll in marginals points to a hung Parliament

Or at least, it would were there an election called next week, which Gordon Brown is expected to confirm any second now that there will not be.

ICM's News of the World poll in 83 Con/Lab marginal seats - the 49 most marginal Labour seats with the Conservatives in second and the 34 most marginal Conservative seats with Labour in second place - shows the Conservatives on 44% and Labour on 38%. According to the News of the World this would result in Labour losing 49 seats if replicated at a general election, wiping out their majority.

The poll didn't include any Liberal Democrat marginals, so we can't project these findings onto the whole House of Commons, but depending on how the Liberal Democrat marginals fell Labour would be left with something around 306 according to the News of the World. That implies the poll was based on the old boundaries, not the new boundaries that a new election would actually be fought upon (The number of seats Labour won 355 minus 49 = 206; 348, the number of seats Rallings and Thrasher have Labour winning minus 49 doesn't), though that could just be the News of the World subtracting it from the wrong figures.

Notably the fieldwork was done between the 2nd and 5th, so some of this poll would have been carried out prior to David Cameron's speech.

UPDATE: Peter Kellner has just confirmed on Sky News that the YouGov poll in tomorrow's Sunday Times will show the Conservatives continuing to advance. I'll update once the figures for that are available.