Opinium/Observer - CON 38, LAB 30, LDEM 5, UKIP 16, GRN 5
Opinium have a new poll in today's Observer - topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here. The rest of the poll largely concentrated on leadership questions. Cameron's approval rating stands at minus 6, Corbyn at minus 25, Farage minus 18, Farron minus 22 (though over half of respondents said don't know on Farron). Net favourable vs unfavourable ratings were similar to job approval - Cameron -5, Corbyn -28, Farage -21, Farron -19.
Asked about the specific qualities of the leaders David Cameron's strongest ratings were on being decisive (+5), having the nation's interests at heart (+3), being a strong leader (+8), getting things done (+11) and standing up for Britain abroad (+4). His biggest weakness, as you will almost certainly have guessed, was being in touch with ordinary people (-34). After five years as Prime Minister, a decade as Tory leader, we know how Cameron is perceived by the public: an effective national leader, but posh and out of touch.
Asked to rate Jeremy Corbyn on the same measures his top ratings come on sticking to his principles (+32) and being in touch with ordinary people (-2). His ratings elsewhere are negative, particularly on being a strong leader, getting things done and standing up for Britain abroad (though the last two are a little unfortunately worded - one could have answered them in the context of Corbyn not being able to get things done because he's not in government).
Best Prime Minister David Cameron leads by 41% to Corbyn's 20%. With Cameron stepping down before the general election this match up is never going to happen though - when Opinium asked the same question with David Cameron's potential successors the figures were far closer: 27% Osborne, 24% Corbyn; May 29%, Corbyn 23%; Boris 34%, Corbyn 23%. The Tory party don't love David Cameron, but electorally they may miss him when he's gone.
Earlier in the week there was also the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail. Topline figures there were CON 37%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. These are good figures for Labour by the standards of ComRes, who since introducing their new socio-economic turnout model have shown the largest Conservative leads, typically around eleven points. Of course, it is just one poll, so all the usual caveats apply... it may herald a narrowing of the polls, or may just be random sample variation and go back to more typical figures next month. Full tabs are here.
