One Step Forward, Two Steps Back for Tories in Recent Polls
As the year comes to a close, one final flurry of polling doesn't much help in clearing up where the public stands. Three polls, from Omnisis, People Polling and Techne, all paint different pictures of the direction of travel. Omnisis give Labour a 25% lead (+5), People Polling puts it at 24% (+2) and Techne at 17% (-1).
First off, Conservatives losing support doesn't seem unlikely. As strikes hit the country, it's hard to imagine this reflecting well on the government of the day. Though it seems somewhat difficult to imagine this is of the magnitude of the 5% suggested by Omnisis, especially when it's not reflected elsewhere.
In these three polls alone, estimates for the Conservative vote share range from 22-28%, and for Labour from 45-51%. People Polling's result could also be caveated by the fact Reform's vote share, which they tend to give higher estimates of, also increased marginally. This might suggest their Labour gain is somewhat overstated and the 22% Conservative vote share is an underestimate. Though, even if the combined Conservative-Reform share is taken, results range from 30-35%, which is hardly conclusive.
Looking back on the year gone by, two of the polls also included questions asking voters to assess our prime ministerial performances. Boris came out top in both polls, followed by Rishi, with People Polling giving Liz 3% and Omnisis... just 1%.
Taking a look at where party supporters diverge gives some helpful context to this. Boris wins out because of his overwhelming support amongst Conservative supporters, whereas Rishi has a broader appeal. This isn't necessarily surprising, though perhaps goes some way to explaining Rishi's relatively high personal favourability, as well as why polls might be registering a resurgence for Reform UK.
One result summed up the year in polling above all others. When asked by Omnisis for their best PM of the year, 30% of 2019 Conservatives, and 46% of voters responded "none of them".
