November Populus Poll

Populus's November poll gives the Conservatives a three point lead. The full topline figures, with changes from last month, are CON 36% (nc), LAB 33% (-2), LDEM 20% (+2). Populus polls generally report lower Conservative leads than the other main pollsters, but the trend reflects that in YouGov and ICM's recent polls of Labour falling back again slightly, presumably as the boost they recieved after the party conference fades away.

The Times' report comments on the gender gap emerging between men and women. The Conservative lead is larger amongst women than men (7 points compared to neck and neck) - it becomes startlingly so when respondents are asked how they would vote with Gordon Brown as leader - amongst women the Conservatives would lead by 12 points, amongst men Labour would lead by 3 points. Obviously gender breaks have half the sample size, and Populus do sometimes use a split sample to ask questions other than the main voting intention question, including the hypothetical questions on how people would vote with Brown as leader, so it might be worth checking the sample sizes for the crossbreaks. All the same, it seems like a striking gap.

The Conservative lead in the hypothetical how would you vote if Brown were Labour leader question is only 4 points, noticably down on previous such questions. The reason seem to be largely because the Liberal Democrats have performed much better in the question, when normally it sees them squeezed down to 15% or 16% (it is debatable whether this is an indication that a Brown vs Cameron contest actually would squeeze the Lib Dem vote, or just a result of the way the question is asked, possibly because of the effect of naming the party leaders).

Populus also found that 49% of respondents wanted an immediate inquiry into the Iraq war, with a further 34% supporting an inquiry after British troops have been withdrawn.