No post-budget bounce for Labour
This morning's Telegraph has the first post budget test of public opinion, a YouGov poll has voting intentions of CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 16%(nc). The poll was conducted between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.
The changes from YouGov's last poll in the Sunday Times are insignificant, but they do suggest that there is no immediate "budget boost" for Labour. Overall 34% of people thought the budget was a fair one, while 46% thought it was not. YouGov have asked the same question after each budget since 2002, and this is the most negative reaction so far, the -12 "net fairness" figure compares to -7 last year, +15 in 2005, +13 in 2004, +23 in 2003 and +34 in 2002. That said, answers to the question are quite partisan - 70% of Tory voters think it was unfair and 65% of Labour voters think it was fair, so the trend may simply be a reflection of Labour's falling popularity.
Overall 40% of people thought that the budget would leave the country worse off, with only 21% thinking the country would be better off. Despite the publicity attached to the headline 2p cut from income tax, 48% thought they personally and their families would be worse off, with only 18% thinking they would benefit, though put into historical context these figures are not incredibly bad. People tend to assume the worst about budgets - if you look back at some previous Brown budgets 45% thought they would be worse off in 2004, 63% in 2003 and 60% in 2002.
Asked about who will benefit from the budget, Labour will probably be quite pleased with the answers - 45% think schools will be better off (12% worse off), 34% think hospitals will benefit (18% worse off), 48% think families with children will benefit (22% think they'll be worse off), 39% think pensioners will benefit (27% worse off), 33% think companies will benefit (25% think they'll be worse off). The only group that a plurality of people thought would suffer from the budget was workers on low incomes, 42% thought they would suffer with only 29% of people thinking they'd be better off.
There were few questions on specific aspects of the budget. The cut in the standard rate of income tax and the increase in road tax on "gas guzzling" cars were both popular. Only 27% though Brown should not have cut the standard rate of income tax, 29% thought he was right to do what he did and 33% would have been happy with even larger cuts. Only 25% objected to the increase in vehicle duty, while 23% would have been happier with even larger rises.
Attitudes to Gordon Brown however remain ambivalent - 40% think he is an asset to the Labour party, but 38% think he is a liability. 44% think he is doing a good job as Chancellor, 36% a bad job. These are good figures compared to the sort of dire approval ratings recorded by Tony Blair, but compared to perceptions of Brown a few years ago are miserable. In YouGov's 2005 post-budget poll Brown was seen as an asset rather than a liability by 63% to 16%, and his job approval figures were 61% to 19%.
Looking at direct comparisons with Tony Blair, 30% think Brown is doing a better job as Chancellor than Blair is as PM, 24% think the opposite. Compare this to two years ago, when 52% thought Brown was doing the better job. 35% of people would now prefer to have Tony Blair as Prime Minister, with 30% preferring Brown. This isn't just Labour's opponents playing silly buggers - Blair is now preferred across the board, amongst Labour supporters 52% would prefer to see Blair as Prime Minister.
Better news for Brown is that the "Stalinist" jibe doesn't seem to have stuck. Only 25% of respondents thought that Brown behaved with "Stalinist ruthlessness", and these were largely Tory votes. 39% thought he was properly tough and 18% thought he was neither tough nor ruthless.
