New YouGov/Sunday Times poll
YouGov's latest poll for the Sunday Times is now up on their website here. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from the end of last month, are CON 40%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 18%(-3) - that's the first time the Conservatives have been at 40% and the Lib Dems below 20% since the first leaders' debate.
There are slight drops in Cameron and Clegg's approval ratings, but both are still up in honeymoon territory at plus 41 for Cameron and plus 38 for Clegg. 66% think the coalition are working well together, 48% think they are running the economy well (24% disagree, with 28% saying don't know).
On the Labour leadership, support amongst the general public is now David Miliband 22%(-1), Diane Abbott 13%(+4), Ed Miliband 7%(-1), Ed Balls 5%(-1), Andy Burnham 4%(nc). Amongst Labour supporters the figures are David Miliband 38%(+4), Ed Miliband 11%(-2), Diane Abbott 9%(+2), Ed Balls 8%(-2), Andy Burnham 6%(+2). We are still awaiting any polling of Labour party members or eligible trade union members, which may or may not bear any resemblence to that of Labour voters!
Asked about the potential for cuts in public spending there are the usual rather contradictory answers - asked where the government should cut, the most popular option is (as usual) international aid, followed by benefit payments then public sector pensions. Asked which areas should be protected, the NHS unsurprisingly comes top. Asked specifically if the NHS should be protected even if it means deeper cuts elsewhere, 70% agree. However, asked if they think a properly managed NHS could be better for patients even if the budget was cut, 60% agree. 66% thought most government departments could and should make cuts of 20%.
Perhaps more enlightening are questions on specific cuts in spending. YouGov gave respondents a list of eight spending cuts and asked people if the government should or should not do them. Most popular was cutting international aid (75% thought the government should), followed by ending final-salary pensions for new public sector employees (63% agreed), a majority also supported ending higher rate tax relief on pension contributions (61%). After that it got tricker - pluralities supported means-testing pensioner benefits like free-bus passes (48%), and freezing welfare benefits other than pensions for three years(43%). Other suggestions were rejected - 42% supported taxing child benefit compared to 45% opposed, 31% supported ending final-salary linked pensions for current public sector employees, with 49% opposed. Freezing the state pension for a couple of years was overwhelmingly rejected (18% support, 68% opposed).
Asking about the other side of the balance - tax hikes - 49% of respondents said the government should raise taxes as part of their strategy for reducing the deficit, compared to 39% who said the government should not do so, even if it meant larger cuts. YouGov then asked people to say whether - if they had to choose - they'd prefer income tax to rise, national insurance to rise, or VAT to rise. VAT came ahead on 39%, followed by NI on 27% and income tax on 19%.
