New Year Polls Converge on 21% Labour Lead
Today, three more pollsters have released their first results of 2023 and together with Redfield & Wilton's result from earlier this week there is a surprising degree of convergence. Three of the four put Labour on 46%, with Redfield & Wilton saying 47%. The Conservative estimates converge on the 25% mark.
PeoplePolling differs most from the Conservative average, putting it at 22%. Though it is likely within the margin for error, the result can be further ameliorated by considering the Conservative vote share alongside that of Reform UK, which the pollster typically puts higher than others. When combined Conservative and Reform vote share is taken, estimates range from 30-33% as opposed to 22-27%.
The congruence doesn't end there. When looking at where 2019 Conservative voters have moved, the three polls released today also paint a remarkably similar picture.
The Conservatives are struggling to retain even half of their previous supporters, with most lost to apathy or indecision. For context, on the same polling Labour is currently retaining between 70% and 80% of theirs. Labour and Reform each benefit from around 10% of 2019 Tories. These results perhaps provide some reassurance to PeoplePolling and Techne: YouGov uses past vote data recorded historically, so the similarity could suggest incidences of false recall are not skewing their numbers.
What's more, these results are aligned with the broader field of polling in the longer term. Our weighted polling average, relying on data points going back into December, now puts Labour on 46.3% to the Conservatives' 25%. For the time being, the relative positions of the major parties are stable.
