New TNS-BMRB Scottish poll
There is a new Scottish poll by TNS-BMRB in the Herald this morning. The topline figures are:
Holyrood Constituency: CON 12%(+3), LAB 44%(-5), LD 11%(+4), SNP 29%(-4) Holyrood Regional*: CON 11%(+2), LAB 39%(-8), LD 10%(+3), SNP 29%(-4), GRN 6%(+3)
Most recent Scottish polling has shown a pretty consistent Labour lead, with the exception of Ipsos MORI's most recent poll, which showed a sharp move towards the SNP, putting them marginally ahead of Labour.
This poll shows a broad movement away from both Labour and the SNP, and towards the minor parties. This may be partially a reversion to the mean (TNS-BMRB's last poll showed Labour with a hefty 49% of the vote), or may be down to a methodological change. In this poll TNS-BMRB changed the way they conducted their interviews, with the interviewer giving people their laptop and asking the respondent to fill in their voting intention themselves, rather than the interviewer asking it as before. Naturally it could be co-incidence, but my expectation would have been that this methodological change would have increased the level of support found for the smaller parties that people may have been less confident in admitting support for.
(*Note that the Herald report doesn't specifically mention the 29% regional figures for the SNP in the text, it just says they have the same figure. I'm interpreting that as meaning they are on 29% in both, though other people have interpreted it as meaning the SNP are on the same figure as last time, which would put them at 33% on the regional vote) - now confirmed as being 29%
There was also an Angus Reid GB poll on Friday which I forgot to post about. Topline figures there, with changes from February, were CON 34%(+1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1). They also had a question on the AV referendum, which found Yes 32%(-3), No 26%(+5), Don't know 35%(-2), Would not vote 7%. Comapred to other pollsters Angus Reid tend to find the lowest level of support for the No campaign, but this shows the same movement towards the NO campaign that we've picked up in ICM and YouGov's recent polls. Different companies asking different questions are showing different overall levels of support for Yes and No, but the trend seems to be in the same direction.
UPDATE: Guido points out that the Angus Reid poll has UKIP on 7%, only 3 points behind the Lib Dems on 10%. For some reason Angus Reid seem to show high levels of support for "other" parties compared to other companies - at the last election it seemed to be a characteristic by all the newer online pollsters.
