New Populus Poll
Full report to follow tomorrow, but there is a Populus poll in Friday's Times with topline figures of CON 36%(-5), LAB 24%(+3), LDEM 19%(+4).
UPDATE: Lots of comment already on this one. Clearly it appears to show a sharp drop in Conservative support, an increase in Labour support and an increase in Lib Dem support. This is rather surprising - in recent years we've normally seen a boost for the victors following the local elections, a "winner's aura effect", and certainly disunity of the sort Labour have suffered in the last week has normally damaged a party.
However, the point of polls is to tell us something we don't know, and the public don't always react to events the way you'd expect. This is the first poll since the Euro-elections, other companies might paint different pictures, but in the wider context this isn't that odd anyway: while this poll shows a sharp narrowing of the Tory lead, it's much in line with other polling from the days before the election, which had also shown the Conservatives heading down into the 30s with Labour in the low 20s.
Looking forward does this indcicate a Labour recovery? Well, what happens in voting intention polls in the coming months largely depends on what happens when support for "others" declines - in this poll it remains at 21%. Currently it is high because of two factors - one of which will fade away, the other of which will probably lessen. Firstly there is the effect of the European elections, which judging by the past precedent of 2004 will fade over the next few months as people put their minds to voting in FPTP elections that choose a government, and the publicity UKIP and the BNP get around European elections fades. Secondly there is the "plague on all your houses" effect of the expenses scandal - it's less of a given that this will decline, in theory it could stay high, but now the Telegraph has seemingly used all its best stories it will get considerably less media attention and will likely fall down the agenda. Where some of that "other" vote goes - does the UKIP vote drift back to the Conservatives? Do some protest votes go back to Labour? Do they become don't knows or won't votes? - will have a big effect upon our topline voting intention figures.
On other questions in the poll, the Times concentrates upon an increase in economic optimism figures. It's important to remember that while the political media has been focused on sleaze and corruption over recent weeks, the economy remains the issue that the public rate as the most important. In today's Populus poll 32% of people now think the economy will do well over the next year, with 63% thinking it will do badly. The balance is clearly still pessimistic, but the trend is improving. I wouldn't go so far as to connect this with the increase in Labour's support - there are a whole load of different factors in play (and besides, Labour have increased within the margin of error in a single poll!) but I'll try to have a closer look at economic optimism figures in the next few days.
UPDATE2: Over on Political Betting, Mike Smithson writes that "It’s always a good indication of how a newspaper regards the findings of a poll that it has commissioned by the reporting. What could be seen as sensational voting numbers here are tucked away near the end of the story." Probably a good thing, considering the criticism Danny Finkelstein threw at the Independent earlier this week for splashing polls on the frontpage when they show surprising figures, rather than treating them with due caution.
