New BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday
Last month BPIX and Populus were the only two pollsters not to put the Conservative party ahead of Labour, on their figures this month the Tories have pulled level. The topline figures are CON 38%(+1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 16%(-1).
The poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday, the same time period that saw Charles Kennedy's admission of his alcohol problem and his eventual removal as Lib Dem leader - with the exception of one Communicate Research poll last year, the 16% rating is the Lib Dem's lowest since 2002. The longer term effects of the change of Lib Dem leadership remain to be seen - Charles Kennedy always received very positive poll ratings, and the Liberal Democrats were normally seen as a united and, for want of a better word, "nice" party prior to the this weekend. The lack of Kennedy and the emergence of party infighting may damage the level of Lib Dem support in other pollsters' figures, though that could be partially cancelled out by the increased media coverage the Liberal Democrats have received in recent days having been largely sidelined in the media since the election.
As usual there are only partial results in the Mail on Sunday for the other questions, but the answers do suggest that David Cameron's honeymoon with the voters is continuing. The percentage of people thinking Cameron is doing a good job has risen to 37% from 29% last month. 41% of people think Cameron is a genuinely different, more sympathetic kind of Conservative, with only 14% disagreeing. 23% of people think he is just an imitation of Tony Blair - but 41% disagree.
Most of Cameron's actions as Tory leader so far seem to have increased people's likelihood to vote Tory - 31% of people said his statement that he would be willing to stand up to big business made them more willing to vote Tory, only 4% said it made them less likely to vote Tory. 36% said his stance on the environment made them more likely to vote Tory, only 5% said it made them less likely to vote Tory. 24% said Cameron's backing for the NHS and abandonment of the patients' passport made them more likely to vote Tory. Less popular was the decision to involve Bob Geldof in the party's consultations on policy towards third world poverty - this repelled as many people as it attracted.
