MRP Poll Finds Brexit Regret Extends to All but Three British Constituencies
UnHerd's MRP project has recently published the results for an MRP poll on the issue of Brexit regret, conducted with focaldata. In every British constituency, bar three, more voters agree with the statement "Britain was wrong to leave the European Union" than disagree. The overall national result is also comprehensive - 50% of voters agree, with just 28% disagreeing.
The only seats that stand by the decision to leave are Boston and Skegness, Louth and Horncastle and South Holland and the Deepings - all very solid Conservative seats (even on current polling). Boston and Skegness tops the list of Brexit die-hards, which is unsurprising considering it was the seat with the highest Leave vote share in 2016. The other two top seats were also in the top 5% of Leave-voting constituencies.
Bristol West regrets Brexit the most - it had the third lowest Leave vote share in 2016.
Of the top 10 seats with the lowest Brexit regret, all are safe for the Conservatives - even with the current national swing. Likewise, the Conservatives don't hold any of the top 10 most regretful seats. This goes to show the extent to which 2019 vote was polarised along party lines.
The overall result may suggest Keir Starmer has more leeway on Brexit than he might expect. Though, it's worth noting the question doesn't specifically ask about rejoining - for which the margin would likely be smaller. The relatively high proportion of responses saying "neither" could also introduce a caveat for Leave supporters.
MRP modelling relies on larger sample sizes than conventional surveys, in this case the sample size was 10,009. It combines these responses, which include demographic information, with pre-existing data to model response rates across geographic areas - in this case parliamentary constituencies. This is especially useful for translating voting intention polls into a forecast for seat share.
