More on Glasgow East

Mike Smithson has managed to get hold of the tables for the Progressive Scottish Opinion poll in Glasgow East.

Looking at the tables, Progressive Scottish Opinion do not appear to have used any political weighting when weighting their sample. Politically their raw sample appears to have been pretty much the same as ICM's, whose weighting had the effective of weighting the SNP sharply downwards and the Liberal Democrats very strongly upwards. As a result, the Progressive Scottish Opinion sample contained a lot more former SNP voters, and a lot fewer Liberal Democrats than ICM's.

It also looks as though Progressive Scottish Opinion did not make any attempt to weight or filter people by their likelihood to vote. In a contest likely to be won on a very low turnout, this is questionable. However, while turnout filtering normally works against Labour, in ICM's Glasgow East poll it helped them - their supporters were more certain to vote than the SNP's.

The irony is that Progressive Scottish Opinion used a methodology that should have produced significantly better figures for the SNP than ICM's method, yet they ended up showing a larger Labour lead than ICM did.

We'll know if either of them are close to the result on Thursday. Personally I would be dubious about reading too much into any polls of the contest: the severe social deprivation and likely atrocious turnout make this constituency a formidable challenge to pollsters.