Monthly Populus Poll
Populus's monthly poll for the Times is out and backs up the findings of other polls on a variety of subjects. The topline voting intention figures are CON 34%(-1), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 21%(+1) following the pattern seen in other recent polls that have shown Conservative support trailing off and a noticable lack of any damage to the Labour party from the ongoing fuss about party loans.
On Tony Blair's future, 57% of people think he has run out of steam and is unlikely to achieve anything more as Prime Minister. 47% of people think he should stand down either immediately or before the end of this year (as I said at the weekend, questions like this are difficult to compare because different polls give people different timeframes to chose from, but 47% saying he should go within 8 months is pretty much consistent with ICM's poll at the weekend showing 57% want him out within 12 months).
Opinion amongst Labour supporters seems to be polarising - 28% of Labour voters think Blair should go now, up 4 points since January, but 50% of Labour voters want him to stay on until just before the next election, up 8 points since the January poll.
Finally Populus asked about party funding. A large majority of people (79%) supported a cap on the amount of money people could donate to political parties. There was, however, a slight majority opposed to state funding of political parties (53% to 43%). Roughly the same proportion (54%) supported tax relief on small donations to encourage people to give to political parties. A third of people said they would give money to a political party if tax relief were given - though I'll believe that when I see it. It is far easier to tell a pollster that you might contribute some money (especially having just told them you think tax relief is a good idea to encourage donations) than it is to actually contribute the money.
For those who follow the methodology of the various pollsters there is a very slight adjustment to Populus's methodology this month - until now they have made a spiral of silence adjustment which consisted of assuming that 60% of those people who say they don't know how they'll vote would, in fact, vote for the party they opted for at the last election. Based on a call-back survey after the last election they are now reducing the proportion of people reallocated to only 50% for former Tory and Labour voters, 30% for former Lib Dems, and none at all for former "Others". In practice the change is so tiny as to be negligible.
