Liberal Democrats Best Placed to Benefit from Tactical Voting
Since writing about by-election prospects in Mid Bedfordshire, readers will no doubt be aware that two further Tory MPs have announced their plan to stand down effective immediately. On top of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, it means four separate by-elections are now on the cards. Whilst Rutherglen looks to be a fairly comfortable Labour target, the others are less certain.
Boris's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip looks like the next best chance of an opposition gain, with Labour in pole position to win the seat. As previously covered, Mid Bedfordshire could be in play, although it looks like the extent of opposition co-ordination could be an important factor. Selby and Ainsty does seem like a bit of a stretch - with Labour primed as the most likely challenger - and a strong result could leave them well-placed for when new, more favourable, boundaries come in.
In all of the seats, the extent of tactical voting could prove significant. It's in this context that new polling from Omnisis can provide useful insight (no doubt it could provide more if they released the tables). Of all voters surveyed, 38% said they would consider voting tactically whilst 44% said they wouldn't.
When responses are broken down into where voters would switch to, the Liberal Democrats come out on top, on 22%, followed by Labour with 21%. The Conservatives come in third, winning over 17% of voters, whilst the Greens and Reform UK are on 11% and 8% respectively. Collectively, a "progressive alliance" seems to have more to gain from tactical voting, with 57% of voters willing to lend their support to the group excluding Reform UK and the Conservatives - on a combined 25%.
No doubt the above bar chart could get some mileage on Lib Dem literature - especially in Mid Bedfordshire. Though Ed Davey may want to show Sir Keir first, if only to help his chances of wining an all-important informal alliance.
