Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI voting intention polls
There are two new voting intention polls out today - YouGov for the Times, and Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor in the Evening Standard.
Ipsos MORI's topline figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Friday and Tuesday (1st-5th), and changes are from MORI's last poll back in December.
YouGov's topline figures are CON 41%(+2), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 10(-1), UKIP 4%(-2). Fieldwork was on Sunday and Monday, and changes are from YouGov's last poll in mid-January.
This does not, of course, offer us much insight on what is really happening. At the weekend a lot of attention was paid to a poll by Opinium showing a big shift towards the Conservatives and a 7 point Tory lead. Earlier in the week Opinium also published a previously unreleased poll conducted for the People's Vote campaign the previous week, which showed a four point Tory lead, suggesting their Observer poll was more than just an isolated blip. Today's polls do little to clatify matters - MORI show no change, with the parties still neck-and-neck. YouGov show the Tories moving to a seven point lead, the same as Opinium, but YouGov has typically shown larger Tory leads anyway of late so it doesn't reflect quite as large a movement.
I know people look at polls hoping to find some firm evidence - the reality is they cannot always provide it. They are volatile, they have margins of error. Only time will tell for sure whether Labour's support is dropping as events force them to take a clearer stance on Brexit, or whether we're just reading too much into noise. As ever, the wisest advice I can give is to resist the natural temptation to assume that the polls you'd like to be accurate are the ones that are correct, and that the others must be wrong.
