Latest voting intentions

Party conference season is sometimes a period of volatile polling - each party typically gets its own week of media coverage which, if all goes well, they'll use for some positive announcements. This year it also immediately followed the Salzburg summit and Theresa May's Brexit statement that followed. Below are the voting intention polls since my last update.

YouGov (18-19th) - CON 40%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 5% (tabs) Opinium (18-20th Sep) - CON 37%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8% (tabs) BMG (21st-22nd Sep) - CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 4% (tabs) ICM (21st-24th Sep) - CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 4% (tabs) YouGov (24-25th Sep) - CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 4% (tabs) ComRes (26-27th Sep) - CON 39%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5% (tabs) Opinium (26-28th Sep) - CON 39%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6% (tabs) BMG (28-29th Sep) - CON 35%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 5%

They are a mixed bunch - the YouGov poll showing a six point Tory lead got some attention, and I'm sure the BMG poll out this morning showing a five point Labour lead will do much the same. As ever, it's wrong to pay too much attention to outliers. Normal sample variation means that if the underlying average is a Tory lead of a point or two, random noise will occassionally spit out a 6 point Tory lead or a small Labour lead, without it actually signifying anything. Collectively recent polls don't suggest a clear impact on voting intention from either the Salzburg statement (while YouGov showed a larger Tory lead, ICM did not), or from the Labour party conference (while BMG show an increased Labour lead, Opinium showed the opposite).