Labour Lead Cut in Latest Ipsos Release
The latest Westminster voting intention poll from Ipsos MORI adds strength to the wider trend of a drop in Labour's electoral lead over the past few months. The pollster puts their advantage down 7% since March, as its headline figures are now firmly in line with the polling average. Ipsos reports Labour on 44% of the vote to 28% for the Conservatives, whilst our average has Labour on 44.8% with the Conservatives on 27.8%.
This marks a shift from Ipsos' prior release in March, where it was in the upper end of estimates for Labour's position. Ipsos is rare in that it conducts its research over telephone, whilst others use online surveys. The fact this methodology is reporting similar figures to broader polls should give us some confidence that the current average - and the trend of a declining Labour lead - is accurate.
Elsewhere, the poll asked voters to predict the outcome of the next General Election. Around two thirds, 63%, opted for a Labour victory, with the majority of this group predicting a hung parliament. Just 25% think the Conservatives will be the largest party.
Meanwhile, the country's latest leader preferences remain relatively unchanged - both Starmer and Sunak remain fairly even with both seeing slight declines in personal ratings. Despite this the government is widely unpopular and there is a strong desire for change - 80% want a "new team" of political leaders. The question remains as to whether Starmer can capitalise on this call for change...
