Labour increase in new ICM poll

ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian is now available here. The topline figures with changes from the previous ICM poll at the end of October are CON 42%(nc), LAB 29%(+4), LDEM 19%(-2).

The Conservatives are unchanged but there is a significant boost for Labour at the expense of the Lib Dems and others (Others are collectively on 10%, one of their lowest scores in any poll since the expenses scandal broke. Certainly there is no echo of ComRes's big increase for minor parties here. The Greens, UKIP and the BNP are all on 2%).

This is the first poll since the Glasgow North East by-election and I'm sure some will attribute the boost in Labour's support to that, certainly it is one of their better poll ratings in recent months. Personally I think there is also something of a reversion to the mean here after some outliers - as I've said a couple of times in recent weeks, there was no obvious methodological reason for the great big gap between Populus showing a 10 point Tory lead and ICM showing a 17 point lead, suggesting that all along the real figure was somewhere inbetween.

The Guardian's coverage is rather pessimistic for Labour, focusing on the other questions in the poll which dealt with perceptions of Brown and Cameron's character. The full details are not there yet, but David Cameron apparently leads Brown by 16 points on having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, by 33 points on having changed his party for the better and 11 points on being decisive, once upon a time one of Gordon Brown's strengths.

42% of people would be pleased or excited if David Cameron won the next election, with 36% either angry or disappointed. The figures for Gordon Brown were 27% pleased/excited and 53% angry or disappointed. The Guardian's interpretation is that this shows there is more to the Conservative lead than just Labour unpopularity. I'm not so sure, after all, one could be pleased about a Conservative victory because it would mean Labour had lost!