Johnson and Coulson
Two big resignations this week - Alan Johnson and Andy Coulson. What will be the impact? The immediate one will be virtually nil. People watching the Westminister bubble tend to consistently over-estimate the impact of comparatively minor gaffes and scandals, the public's awareness of the stories or even the existance of the people involved. The important impacts are the long term ones.
Taking Coulson first, it is unlikely to change people's perception of the government, Cameron or the coalition. It fact, it really won't have an impact on public opinion at all - most people making a fuss will be those with a negative opinion to start with. However, it does rob David Cameron of a close and valued advisor (and indeed, the figure in his inner circle with the least privileged, most "normal" background) - if there is an long term impact from Coulson's resignation, this will be it.
Secondly there is Alan Johnson - here there are more obvious impacts on public opinion. The circumstances around Johnson's resignation itself are not - it seems Johnson himself is blameless, and even if he weren't, it would again be tomorrow's chip paper with four years to go. Rather the question is what Labour have lost in the departure of Alan Johnson, and what the prospects are for Ed Balls.
Johnson had made some gaffes in recent days but these wouldn't necessarily have been noticed by ordinary people. Johnson was seen comparatively positively by the public - in December 34% saw him as an asset for the Labour party and only 20% a liability, giving him a better rating than any other senior Labour figure. Despite being seen by political commentators as perhaps not up to the role, the public didn't have him far behind George Osborne as best Chancellor (25% Osborne, 21% Johnson) - though that may be just as much about poor perceptions of Osborne. In short, Alan Johnson is a loss for Labour.
That brings us to Ed Balls. Here things are more balanced. The positives are quite clear - Ed Balls is a combatitive and capable politician with a solid economic background, who will no doubt do a very good job in attacking George Osborne and the government's economic policy. The downsides are trickier - polls suggest Balls is not seen very positively. 28% of people see him as an asset for Labour, but 32% see him as a liability, significantly more than the man he replaces (though not the man he is going to shadow, who the same figures suggest is seen by the public as a comparatively weak link on the Tory front bench)
More significantly though will be the impact upon how Labour are seen and upon their future strategy. Balls is seen as extremely close to Gordon Brown, and as being opposed to the need for cuts (or at least, this is how the media currently see him and how the Conservatives will attempt to paint him)
On New Year's Eve I wrote a round up piece on the challenges facing Labour - essentially looking at the underlying weaknesses that Miliband needed to take the opportunity of a poll lead to address. I won't repeat too much of it here, but will just pick out a couple of poll findings I cited back then, taken from a poll in September 2010, which reflect the sort of image problems facing Labour. Back then 69% agreed that "Labour need to make major changes to their policies and beliefs to be fit for government again", 60% agreed "Labour still haven't faced up to the damage they did to the British economy", 47% thought that "If Labour returned to government they would put the country into even more debt".
We asked it again earlier this month to see if Ed Miliband had made any difference to negative perceptions of the Labour party yet. The answer is not much - 65% still think Labour need to make major changes to their policies (including 45% of Labour voters!), 58% still think Labour haven't faced up to the damage they did to the economy, 47% still think they would put the country back into debt were they to return to government.
Labour have a good lead in the polls and my expectation is that it will get bigger in the coming months, Ed Miliband has the strategic choice of whether to gamble on the coalition remaining unpopular and just hammering away at the cuts and reaping the rewards of opposing them, or using the luxury of a poll lead to reposition Labour to a more opportune position should the economy improve and the cuts not be a disaster. Conservatives pleased with the appointment of Balls seem to be working on the assumption that the appointment of Ed Balls signifies Miliband is going down the first route, though we shall see.
