Is Rishi Really More Popular than Keir?
A recent poll last night from Redfield & Wilton was doing the rounds on social media recently. It showed Rishi Sunak taking a 4% lead over Keir Starmer in who would make the best Prime Minister. As with many polls that gain traction on social media, the result seems counter-intuitive. Especially considering the parties’ respective position in the polls and both YouGov and Opinium’s preferred PM polls have Starmer leading Sunak, albeit marginally,
Naturally, the results can be caveated by the fact that this is only one poll. More significantly, the wording of the question could impart an incumbency advantage. The specific question used was “At this moment, Which of the following individuals do you think would be the better Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?”. Considering, at the moment, Rishi Sunak is the Prime Minister; and the Conservative Party hold a large parliamentary majority, there seems to be a number of reasons respondents might be predisposed to answer for Rishi. Although this result alone is insufficient to draw any sweeping conclusions, the poll does add to a growing body of polling that Rishi is uncharacteristically liked.
Polling distinguishing party, personal and issue popularity paints a somewhat conflicted picture at the moment. As demonstrated by the below chart, there isn’t even a clear reference point for Rishi’s personal approval. The discrepancy could be explained by the timing of polls, as suggested by the change in results between Redfield & Wilton polls. Slight differences in wording could also be a cause for variance.
That said, it is clear that Sunak far exceeds the popularity of his party. In some areas he even exceeds the credibility of the Labour Party and of Keir Starmer. BMG found he was more trusted than Starmer on the Economy and Immigration, where the Conservatives lagged Labour on both. The Conservatives’ brand is tremendously unpopular and yet Rishi more than compensates for it in a number of areas.
This is brought home in the same Redfield & Wilton poll that put Rishi as the preferred Prime Minister. It also found 49% of voters believe the current government is incompetent, with just 15% disagreeing. The poll also showed that 35% of voters think Rishi “represents change” while Keir Starmer himself polled 37% in the same measure. This is despite the fact the Tories have been in power for 12 years. The regicidal instincts of the Conservative Party has yet again provided the opportunity for renewal in office.
It is worth noting that Rishi’s ratings have room to shift. Polls commonly report higher proportions of “don’t know” responses for Sunak than Starmer. This indicates the public already have a formed image of Keir, whereas many may be yet to pass judgement on Rishi. With an upcoming budget that’s expected to include significant fiscal tightening, this might not work in his favour.
