Ipsos MORI/Standard - CON 40, LAB 31, LD 7, UKIP 11, GRN 4

Anthony Wells

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Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor is out today, with topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%. Full details and tables are here.

MORI also asked respondents to choose between the parties on various more specific measures - a bank of questions with back data going back to 1989:

  • On having the "best policies for the country as a whole" the Conservatives now lead by ten points (compared to a two point Tory lead in 2010 and 2014, and a Labour lead from 1992 to 2005).
  • On being the most clear and united about its policies the Conservatives lead by twenty points (compared to ten points in 2014, five points in 2010. The last time there was a lead this big was a 31 point lead for Labour in 2001.)
  • On having the best "team of leaders" the Conservatives lead by twenty-seven points (compared to eleven points in 2014 and five points in 2010 - again you need to go back to Labour in 2001 to find a larger lead)
  • The only measure where Labour haven't collapsed is "looking after the interests of people like yourself" - here the Conservatives have a narrow lead of four points, compared to a two point Labour lead in 2014 and a four point Tory lead in 2010.

The poll also had questions about two policy issues facing Labour. One was Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that companies should be barred from paying dividends if they don't pay the living wage. In principle this idea seems popular - 66% of people say they would support it, 17% of people would be opposed. In the survey MORI did a split sample experiment and asked the other half of the sample about the policy without any attribution, and half about it having explained it was Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion. When the policy was identified as coming from Corbyn support was lower - 60% support, 24% opposed.

The obvious conclusion is that identifying a policy as coming from Jeremy Corbyn makes it less popular. This is probably true... but I wouldn't get too excited about it. Conservative party modernisers used to make their case using similar data showing policies were less popular when associated with the Conservative party. I think the reality is that strong partisan supporters of other political parties will almost always be turned off a policy when it is associated with an opponent, so yes, putting Jeremy Corbyn's name to a policy would make it less popular, but so would putting the Labour party's name to the policy, or the Conservative party's name, or Osborne or Cameron's name.

The other policy MORI asked about was Trident. 58% of people opposed Britain getting rid of nuclear weapons, rising to 70% when it was asked specifically about unilateral disarmament... a similar figure to when MORI asked the same question in the 1980s.

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