Ipsos MORI on immigration
A new Ipsos MORI poll in the Sun has topline voting intentions of CON 40%, LAB 35%, LDEM 13%. This is in contrast to a MORI poll a week ago which showed Labour back up above 40%, ahead of the Conservatives. The five point Tory lead is the largest MORI have given them since back in April.
This poll was conducted over the telephone, rather than face-to-face like MORI's standard monthly polls
- MORI take the view that there is no systemic difference between voting intention figures from their phone polls and their face-to-face polls and, taking them at their word, I normally draw comparisons from the most recent MORI poll whatever the sampling method used. Compared to the last MORI face to face poll the changes are the Conservatives and Lib Dems steady, but Labour down 6 and the 'other parties' up 6. Compared to the MORI poll a fortnight before that, conducted over the phone, the changes are the Conservatives down 1, Labour down 3 and the Lib Dems up 2.
I needs a better look, but on the surface I rather suspect the sampling method is making a difference somewhere along the line.
The rest of the poll asked a series of questions on immigration. MORI found deep dissatisfaction with the government's handling of immigration, 72% of people were disatisfied with only 15% satisfied. 64% of people though laws on immigration should be tougher, not counting the 12% who wanted it stopped altogether. 68% thought there were too many immigrants in Britain.
Overall though a lot of the answers seemed a but confused... 48% of people thought that immigration in general was good for Britain, compared to 36% who disagreed. Asked if immigrants were having a good or bad influence on the way things are going in Great Britain though, only 34% said good and 52% said bad. The only answer I can think of to the apprantly contradiction is that the second question specifically prompted people to consider both legal and illegal immigration.
In their own area most people said immigrants had not had much positive or negative effect - only 15% believed immigration was creating problems in their own area. Most people did not think immigrants were more likely to commit crime either, only 24% did - and this question was again prompted to make people consider both illegal and illegal immigration. A large proportion of people also thought that immigrants worked harder than people born here - 45% agreed. Only 8% said they thought they worked less hard, suggesting the vast majority of people don't actually believe the stereotype of a scrounging immigrant coming here for state benefits.
So, most people don't think immigrants cause problems, don't think they cause crime and don't think they are layabouts (or at least, are not willing to admit thinking any of these things to an interviewer, which is not necessarily the same thing as not thinking them). Where the public did express fears was over pressure on public services: 82% of people thought that education and healthcare services would not be able to cope with rising population from immigration.
